Good Morning, Lets roll!! It’s a new year. We have a new and perfected system. I feel like we’re ready for anything the market can throw at us. Does that mean I think this is going to be the best year ever? No, not necessarily. I think it’s going to have it’s challenges and I feel almost certain that we’ll have a major correction of 10% or more within the next quarter or so. We are overdue for that and it is necessary if the market is to reach new highs in 2026! So why be excited when I think the market will drop? Again, because we have the new system in place and perfected. Prior, to 2009, before quantitative easing which was unprecedented at the time, we had invested using the same system for over twenty years. We could see clearly and were never ever concerned about pullbacks. We saw them coming on our charts then simply sidestepped them and rode the market higher when if recovered. Rinse and repeat for over 20 years. Without getting into the details (ya’ll can read about it in the archives) our system stopped working with all the monetary stimulus being pumped into the markets. It was a nightmare that I don’t ever want to repeat! We totally lost our advantage over the market and become like everyone else. We used traditional technical analysis and survived until the pandemic. Most of you lived through that with us. In 2020 nothing we did worked and our allocation dropped some 28% along right along with everyone else. We eventually made that back but the time was lost forever. After thirty years in the business for the First time we were fully engulfed in a bear market. So we went back to the drawing board and ditched traditional technical analysis and looked for a way to overcome all the market manipulation that we were encountering. All the while the buy and hold crowd were scoffing at us. Multiple services wrote about us as if what we did had never worked before. They had never been able to outperform us in the past. Not ever, but then they could. So they touted their traditional wall street buy and hold systems as superior to us. They went back on the only bad year we had experienced in thirty years and pointed out how our system didn’t work. They lied and many folks drank the cool aide.  They had a total lack of creativity. They didn’t change a thing they were doing. Not one thing. No skill, no vision, no knowledge. They couldn’t even tell you why their buy and hold systems were working and they seemed to have amnesia when it came to their underperformance over the past say 30 years. So why did I bring this all up again??? Because with the perfection of our new system, we can see seven clearer than we could see prior to 2009. I have never seen the market clearer than can see it now! Whether the market rises or falls, I am confident that we can react to it and  make money in the end. I am so excited! There is no telling what we could have done if we’d had these indicators thirty years ago. Romans 8:28 says that all things work to the good of them who love the Lord. At the time all this was going on I certainly couldn’t see how this was ever going to work to our good, but God had a plan. All we had to do was humble ourselves and submit to it. We did just that! Even though we thought we were failing, we prayed that His will would be done. He heard our prayers and guided our hand in the development of a new set of indicators and the rest is history. He turned what was bad into something good. We give Him all the praise and all the glory and all the honor. For He has brought us out of the valley and allowed us to see clearly once again. So let the scoffers scoff. Bring on the market whatever it will be. We’re ready! No weapon formed against us shall prosper!

Just when I thought I wouldn’t write another book I did! LOL Anyway, looking at todays market we had a huge geo political development with the capture of Nicolas Maduro this weekend. As big as this event was, the market has somewhat ignored it. However, make not mistake. It could effect the market if it effects the price of oil. You see, Venezuela has the biggest proven oil reserves in the world, but my understanding is that they couldn’t pump that much of it due to a crumbling infrastructure. Back in the day when the previous leader of he country, Hugo Chavez, came to power he seized all the oil producing capacity of the country being the communist that he was. At that time Venezuela was one of the richest countries in the world. Fast forward to today and socialism has taken it’s toll. The countries infrastructure and economy are in shambles. As a result their oil production is just a shadow of what it used to be. Why did I say all this? So goes oil, so goes the market. It’s yet to be determined how this situation will effect the price of oil. Will the oil companies like Chevron go in and  rebuild the oil producing capacity? Right now, most major oil companies are apprehensive about getting involved in Venezuela and for a good reason. They all lost a lot of money back when Chavez came to power and they are not eager for a repeat. Secondly, you have the governmental situation , a lot of the  same corrupt officials that enriched themselves in the drug trade are still in control. Will fear of President Trump make them do the right thing? I’m certainly not inclined to think so. Will the US become more involved with in governing  the country? Will there be further conflict? There are way to many undetermined factors here to make any predictions. So it’s a good thing that all we have to do is react to what happens. It’s much easier to predict the weather than it is to tell what the outcome of that situation will be….. So moving on, it appears at least for now that most of investors are focusing on market fundamentals. They are optimistic that stocks will move higher due to Artificial Intelligence earnings growth, Easier Monetary policy, Easing environmental regulations, and  a reduction in taxes. In simpler terms, a more business friendly environment! I must add that I agree. The second major thing we have going on this week is Fridays jobs report. Investors will again look at it through the lens of how it will affect the Fed’s monetary policy. As usual, we will look at this news to see how it might effect our charts but we will only look at our charts with regard to any investment decisions that we make. In other words, all this news is nice, but we can take it or leave it. We don’t really need it because we can see clearly now! 

The days trading so far has left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment is currently trading higher at +0.82%. For comparison, the Dow is also higher at +1.39%, the Nasdaq is +0.93%, and the S&P 500 is +0.82%. Praise God for a good day!

Dow rallies 600 points to record as investors see little market risk from Venezuela action, Chevron shares surge: Live updates

Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Hold. Our TSP allotment is now +0.21% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

More Prices & Returns

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.