Uncategorized

Good Morning, The theme for the market in 2022 remains the same. Inflation and interest rates. Make no mistake, if you watch those and nothing else you won’t be totally wrong. However there have been some secondary issues that have been able to move the market significantly at times which brings me to today. Our old friend COVID has started to rear it’s ugly head again. This past week China reported their first two COVID deaths in a significant period ...

Good Afternoon, I’ll start this weeks blog just as I have all fall. The market remains volatile. As long as the rate of inflation remains significantly above two percent that will be the case. Although, recently there have been a few possibly encouraging things to take place. The first and foremost is that the most recent CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) reports came in lower than expected. We had been waiting quite while for one or ...

Good Evening, Like we said last week the only thing that doesn’t change these days is change. With the VIX this high the market has been volatile and volatile means change. Last week the Consumer price index (CPI) came in lower than expected and things started to turn around for us. Today the producer price index (PPI) followed suite with a number that was only half of what was expected (.2 vs .4) and restarted the rally after it took ...

Good Morning, It’s time to adjust our mix. The new mix is 100/S. Please remember that this is the percentage of money that we have invested in each fund, not the money that is taken from your check and deposited into thrift. Those future contributions should always be 100% G Fund. That automatically protects your deposit in the event that it is made on a bad day for the market. The funds that accumulate in the G Fund are automatically picked up 

the next time you change your mix.  As ...

Good Morning, If you don’t like the market today then wait until tomorrow! The only thing that doesn’t change in 2022 is change…. Volatility remains the byword for this market and until we see a lower rate of inflation that will remain the case. For those of you that are keeping score so to speak our trend model has now moved back to a buy signal. At his juncture the market has two things that will determine it’s direction over ...

Good Morning, Oh my what a frustrating market. I said already and I’ll say it again. It is the hardest market I can ever remember trading and my results bear it out. I have never in over 30 years of doing this failed to out perform the S&P 500. Those of you that have been with me since 1997 know that to be a fact. So why bring it up? Something has changed and if I knew for sure ...

Good Evening, Lets do a little housekeeping first. I was contacted by member of our group who pointed out to me that several folks were struggling with the language in our alerts. She pointed out that the new TSP site utilized a different system for making an interfund transfer and that in fact it was not called an interfund transfer any longer but is now referred to as ‘changing the mix’. Due to this change in language many folks do ...

Good Morning, It’s time to adjust our allocation. The new allocation is 100/C. Please remember that this is the percentage of money that we have invested in each fund, not the money that is taken from your check and deposited into thrift. That deposit should always be 100% G Fund. That automatically protects your deposit in the event that it is made on a bad day for the market. The funds that accumulate in the G Fund are always picked up when ...

Good Morning, For the past four sessions we have seen a nice countertrend rally develop. So now I’m starting more questions than I could possibly answer unless maybe I had a secretary to help me. Perhaps I should enlist Mrs. Grimes? No, I think not. she is quite busy and enjoying her retirement from the BOP so I best not bother her LOL. This inheritably happens when the market moves up or down. Folks are either running their own system ...

Good Afternoon, The market is undergoing it’s second day in the green after multiple weeks of pain. The S&P 500 is moving toward it’s first back to back days in the green in two weeks. Is this just an oasis in the desert or have we reached the promised land? Yesterday and today’s rallies are based on third quarter earnings reports that have started to flow in. Johnson and Johnson, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Lockheed ...