Good Morning, I woke up this morning and looked  at the notifications on my phone and I was like what? A criminal investigation of Jerome Powell? What kind of fake Facebook post is that?? Then I saw a thing or two from a couple of the major networks and I immediately realized that this might not be as good a day/week as I originally thought it would. I think the powers that be must not sleep at night for thinking of ways to make this market difficult. So we find ourselves in a little bit of a negative market environment this morning when we’d expected some upside. All I can say at this point is that you need to be checking your charts more often than ever. Other than God, they are the only thing you can depend on. This market is in a constant tugowar. This crazy news is only a small portion of what is shoving it around. There has been almost constant sector rotation between value investments, Tech and AI, and safe havens such as gold and silver with a few crypto trades added for spice. This mornings news changed the market dynamics quite a bit over the short term. The Wall street  trade of the day is a risk off move with the selling of stocks and the buying of safe havens such as gold. The result of all this is a lot of red on my screens this morning and a falling dollar. I don’t know how long this will last, but it changes things quite a bit for TSP investors. First of all, the falling dollar benefits the I fund. Secondly, the move to safe havens is a drag on the C and S Funds with the move out of tech making it doubly bad for the S Fund. The question here is not if this market environment is bad for equity based funds, because it is, but how long it will it last? For instance, we could move to the I fund and take advantage of the falling dollar but the risk on trade could be back in very short order. Possibly as soon as this afternoon! For that reason, we are sticking with the C Fund which is the most stable of our equity based funds to wait this craziness out. It is our opinion that this situation is transitory and any attempt to adjust our allocation to accommodate it would leave us poorly positioned for the long to intermediate term. Folks, it’s really hard to make effective long term investments when there are so many short term developments. Our prayer is that this market will settle down and let us all make some stress free gains moving into the spring. I don’t know about you but I cant wait for that! Another thing adding to our consternation this morning is a statement by President Trump that credit card interest should be capped at 10% for 2026 to help with the affordability issue. Now folks, I’m not going to get into the debate about affordability which seems to be the buzz word for both political parties in 2026, but I will say this. Right now at least, the market doesn’t like it because if will artificially limit the money that banks can make. So this thing is a double edged sword. While it will benefit the consumer who represents 80% of the buying power of the market and could possibly spur the economy, it is a drag on the profitability of banks. Nothing is easy in this market…….

The days trading so far had left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment is off slightly at -0.05%. For comparison, the Dow is giving up -0.18%, the Nasdaq -0.06%, and the S&P 500 is -0.05%. Who knows it may rise this afternoon once market players have had a chance to digest the current news. Right now it’s come back a bit and it’s not too bad. Yes , the I fund is higher, but remember on thing. “It’s not what you make that’s important. It’s what you keep!”

Dow falls more than 100 points as DOJ Powell probe raises fear Trump trying to take control of the Fed: Live updates

last weeks action let us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, and F Buy. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +1.80% for the year not including todays results. Here are the latest posted results:

More Prices & Returns

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.