Good Afternoon, I’m doing this a little early this week as I have a broken water line to attend to in the morning. The big issues this week are President Trumps bid to buy Greenland, Threatened Tariffs on European Nations if they don’t back the sale of Greenland to the US, continued sector rotation out of tech and into recently neglected sectors, the uprising in Iran, who will be the next Fed Chief, and further speculation on the Feds next interest rate move. I think all the extra curricular activity with Greenland, Iran, and Trumps battle with the Fed are adding an additional layer of volatility that we don’t normally see this time of year. For the most part it’s usually just earnings and stock valuations. However, this year we have all these additional things for the market to consider. You ask me to make a prediction? That’s a hard thing to do. You’d have to consider a bunch of what if’s to do that and that is just opinion. For instance who will be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve? Will Greenland be sold the the US? or will additional Tariffs be leveled against multiple European Countries? Will the Fed lower interest rates to accommodate the labor market? or will the Fed continue to be over concerned about inflation? Where will inflation actually move, higher or lower? How will the situation in Iran be resolved and how will it affect the oil supply? and speaking of Oil Supply, how about the situation in Venezuela? Will the government there be friendly to the US or will it be more of the same? You know our track record with regard to regime change is a little spotty….ditto that for Iran. The list of questions goes on and on….. any one of them could effect the market more or less. Normally, I would say that the bull market would continue unabated, but there are simply too many unanswered questions that create uncertainty and we all know how the market hates uncertainty. So my advice is this…..don’t sweat the small stuff and all stuff is small stuff. Yes sir/ma’am. I usually mean this to a lesser degree when I talk about keeping an eye on your charts because there are normally less questions to be answered making it far easier to talk about where the market might go in the upcoming year. This year is different and why it is I’ll leave for you to decide. Why really doesn’t make me one cent but What does and my charts tell me what is happening. So my advice is not to sweat all these questions. Watch the charts and if they tell to buy, sell,  or hold then do it. Watch the news and when you see something happening double down on your charts and see WHAT it is doing to the market! It’s nice it you know Why, but its critical that you know What. Spending a bunch of time trying to answer these questions and more or what take you away from the things that are truly important in your life. Technical analysis when done correctly is a time saver. It will help you quickly analyze  WHAT is going on and deal with it in an expedient manner. I don’t care who you are, you can’t predict the future. You can only guess and be lucky if your right. One more thing about the current market. I said it for the last few weeks and I will echo it again this week. We are overdue for a  correction which by definition is a dip in the market of 10% or more. Corrections are merely a healthy part of an up trending market and you will inevitably have one. Usually to the tune of one or two per year. I fully expect a correction to occur in the first or second quarter of this year and will be surprised if we don’t see one. I do not expect a bear market. However, before you say that you will hold through it when it occurs since it’s only abut 10%, I will tell you this. All bear market’s (which are market dips of 20% or more) start with a correction. Let me repeat that for those of you who didn’t get it or blew it off. All bear markets begin with corrections! The majority of folks that get caught in a bear market wish that they’d sold when it was only in the minus 10% or less range. As I said last week and I’ll say again this week. Treat all corrections like they are going to turn into a bear market. I can guarantee you that no one that ever got caught holding a significant amount of stocks in a bear market entered a correction thinking that would be the case. No one. It’s simply too painful. One other thing about this. I’ll also say yet again. For those of you that say “It’ll come back. It always has. You can’t time the market! The C fund has made averaged 10% or more in for every year since it’s inception. Just set it and forget it. I say this. Time is money and money is time. Those people that held onto stocks in 2000 lost on the average 34% or their portfolios. Mind you that was the average! Many people had to delay their retirements for that reason because they no longer had enough money to retire due to the unexpected catastrophic loss. So yeah, you can hold it until it comes back and while your at it enjoy that extra time working that y0u could have spent with your family. So now there are others of you that are saying this “I have several years before I retire. I’ve got time. They didn’t have time. They should have had their money in the G Fund of one of the F Funds.” I say this to you “Time is money and money is time” What do I mean? That’s not just a cute saying. It is a fact! Let this really sink in! How long do you think it was before those folks made their money back? It took the market until March before they made it back. You argue “That’s not much time” Well it was March alright, March of 2005. Lets do some math. The bear market started it December of 2000. That would make it about 52 months….. or four years and 4 months. Do you know how much money those of us that moved to the G Fund in early December of 2000 made during those years? Yes, time is money and money is time and in this case it was both. Another way to think about it is this. How long did it take you to make say the last 40% of your portfolio? Do y0u really want to waste that much time making back what you would lose in a bear market? Then there are those that wait a little too long and their account balance drops 8% or so before they notice. Then they say that they’ll just sell as soon as they make that back. Then a week later they are 10% in the hole, then 12% then 15%…….Well you get the picture. I have this to say to you. The first thing you need to do it you want to get out of a hole is stop digging. Most people that got caught holding the bag in a bear market didn’t even realize it was happening to them. A lot of times is very subtle. So remember, if this correction comes and I think it will, if nothing else before the end of the year, just remember that all bear markets start with a correction. Stay prayed up and watch your charts and you will always be fine.

Since its the weekend and they market is closed we’ll forgo that part of the blog.

S&P 500 closes little changed Friday, posts weekly loss amid raft of Trump comments: Live updates

Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +1.44% for the year. Here are the latest posted returns.

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God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.