Good Morning, What a mess, or should I say new mess. These days the market is moving from one Geopolitical crisis to another. By now you are all well aware of the tragic shooting of Alex Petti in Minneapolis. Regardless of who you think is to blame it is a terrible thing, but I’m not here to write about that. I’m here to talk about it’s possible effect on the market and make no mistake it will ultimately have an effect. In recent weeks we have talked about a possible correction and events that might trigger it. The thing we think that would most likely be the catalyst for some negative action would be the budget negotiations as the current continuing resolution keeping the government funded comes to an end next month. The shooting of Alex Petti has emboldened the left and many are calling for another government shutdown unless the Department of Immigration and Customs Enforcement is defunded. An already divided government has now become even more divided, and they’re going to come to an agreement on a budget moving forward? I’ll be most surprised if they can. Barring a miracle we will likely see shutdown 2.0. It is and has been my belief that this event will likely bring about the correction we have been discussing which will be followed by a nice rally when it gets resolved. That’s just one scenario based on speculation. As usual we will watch our charts closely in anticipation of a market move. Currently we are invested at 100/G and will watch cautiously to see how trading this week is effected by the shooting. As of this writing the market has opened higher about half a point. As I said on Facebook, if our charts allow us to get back in we will do so, but will surely keep our finger on the eject button if we do. You see we will always follow our charts even if we feel the market fundamentals don’t agree. This market has been volatile ever since interest rates became on issue and the budget situation has only added to that. It is extremely clear that this volatility will not leave us until both of these issues are resolved. The second thing that the market is focusing on which would normally be the main thing are the quarterly earnings reports. The meat of earnings season gets underway this week with more than 90 S&P 500 companies being set to post quarterly reports, including Meta Platforms and Microsoft on Wednesday, and Apple on Thursday. So far, the earnings season has been strong, with 76% of the companies that have reported beating expectations, per FactSet. If only that was all we had to watch….. What a mess!
The days trading so far has generated the following results. Our TSP allotment remains steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow is higher at +0.41%, the Nasdaq +0.37%, and the S&P 500 +0.43%. This is good, but bear in mind that this market is extremely news driven right now. We just don’t know what will happen with regard to the situation here and abroad. Remember, we still have the demonstrations in Iran with possibly up to 30,000 people slaughtered by the government there with a US carrier group steaming close by. This market may seem stable on the surface but there is extreme volatility just underneath. Keep a close watch on your charts!
S&P 500 opens higher as Apple, Meta gain ahead of earnings: Live updates
Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Hold, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allotment is now -0.62% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 01/23/26 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 19.6409 | 20.9194 | 110.7141 | 105.4681 | 58.3726 |
| $ Change | 0.0023 | 0.0165 | 0.0461 | -1.3674 | 0.2902 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.08% | +0.04% | -1.28% | +0.50% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | +0.07% | -0.33% | -0.76% | +1.05% |
| % Change month | +0.27% | +0.18% | +1.10% | +5.04% | +5.19% |
| % Change year | +0.27% | +0.18% | +1.10% | +5.04% | +5.19% |
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