Good Evening, Just a quick note this evening after an obviously turbulent day. The Corona Virus is spreading and today the US Center For Disease Control quarantined all Citizens being repatriated from China. Investors decided today that the Corona Virus is indeed going to take a toll on the world economy. There continue to be reports of supply chains being interrupted due work closures as a result of the virus. It seems that most of the early news underestimated the effect of the the virus on public health and in turn on the global economy. So what to do now??? A glance at the charts indicate that they are coming under pressure but the majority of them are not yet close to generating sell signals. Looking back at the SARS out break shows us that folks who sold early then were punished as the market turned back up and made (I think) an additional 10 percent. We know that eventually this virus is going to run it’s course and when it does there will be some type (probably major) of relief rally. So what about the rest of the economy? There have been a few disappointing earnings reports to be sure but the majority of them have exceeded expectations. Interest rates still low. Inflation, still low. Unemployment? Still at record lows. GDP? The economy is still growing at a 2 percent rate. While that’s not setting the world on fire it’s pretty good and a long way from a recession. So overall, the economy is solid and steady. If this viral problem came to an end today I’d have to say that there will probably be a big rally. Question is how much stress can things take from the Corona Virus before the aforementioned economic indicators go south? My guess is that if they do go south our money will be the least of our problems…. At any rate you can make a decision and sell now or you can wait for the charts to throw up a sell signal or you can say this thing will eventually get better so I’m going to look the other way and ride it out. It is my humble opinion that this is going to be worse than we first thought but that it will still at some point get better. My strategy going into this crisis is to give my investments a lot of room to run on the charts before I sell. In other words I’m going to hang in there as long as I possibly can. I am not buying and holding!! I’m just going to give this market every chance to bounce. It is overdue for a correction anyway and could sell off to the tune of 10 percent or more before it bounces back. However, given the way the computer algorithm has rapidly reversed the market in recent months and years I’m not inclined to short this sell off although I must say it’s tempting. High speed computer trading has changed the game and has changed the way I trade……
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gave up a whopping 1.77%. For comparison, the Dow lost -2.09%, the Nasdaq 1.59%, and the S&P 500 1.77%.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now -0.04% on year. Here are the latest posted results:
| 01/31/20 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.3777 | 20.095 | 47.2395 | 55.9293 | 31.8244 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0294 | -0.8483 | -0.9879 | -0.2920 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.15% | -1.76% | -1.74% | -0.91% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | +0.62% | -2.10% | -2.12% | -3.13% |
| % Change month | +0.17% | +1.91% | -0.04% | -0.62% | -2.73% |
| % Change year | +0.17% | +1.91% | -0.04% | -0.62% | -2.73% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 21.1876 | 29.3024 | 34.6956 | 38.2036 | 22.3223 |
| $ Change | -0.0642 | -0.1013 | -0.3035 | -0.4002 | -0.2673 |
| % Change day | -0.30% | -0.34% | -0.87% | -1.04% | -1.18% |
| % Change week | -0.47% | -0.54% | -1.43% | -1.71% | -1.96% |
| % Change month | +0.01% | -0.02% | -0.45% | -0.59% | -0.71% |
| % Change year | +0.01% | -0.02% | -0.45% | -0.59% | -0.71% |
