01/01/16 – Year End Review

Good Morning and Happy New Year!  So how’d we do in 2015???? Know that I am my own worst critic. Here are the final figures. Our TSP allocation finished the year in the green at +0.25%. That doesn’t seem very good until you look at the major indices. For comparison, the Dow finished the year in the red at -2.23%, the S&P 500 was also in the Red at -0.73%, with only the Nasdaq in the Green at +5.73%. Of course we have no direct exposure to the NASDAQ in Thrift so it’s very hard for us to beat that index in a year such as this one when it out performs. The main benchmarks that we compare ourselves to are the Dow and the S&P and we beat them both. Am I bragging? Absolutely not. I have done much better over the years and am not satisfied with this performance. A lot of things have changed in the market in recent years not the least of which where FED intervention and a much greater influence in computer algorithm trading. The resulting market has moved sideways and left little opportunity to make money. Only traders with short term time frames have been able to profit in this environment and it has been hit or miss for them. That said, we will be tweaking our system a bit in 2016. As the market evolves, we must evolve with it. That will mean that we will either have to take profits quickly or trade around a fund or funds as a core holding much as you would trade around individual core stock in your portfolio. No doubt about it. We must change or be left behind in this market. Here is a link to CNBC with all the year end figures:

Stocks close lower; worst year for S&P, Dow since 2008

 

Well, that’s it for 2015. I pray that God will bless each one of you and yours in 2016!

God bless, Scott 8-)

 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 05/19/25

    Good Morning, Another day another challenge. This market is anything other than boring and I say that not necessarily in a good way! When it comes to the market I think boring is good. That means less volatility and that means less stress. Nonetheless, we have what we have and we must deal with it.…

  • 05/12/25

    Good Morning, Our charts told us we were at the bottom and the fundamentals agreed. The opportunity was so compelling that we probably jumped back in a few weeks to early, but we wanted to make darn sure we were positioned for the run that would surely come. The market dipped and many chicken little…

  • 05/05/25

    Good Morning, Inevitably, we will have a down day and today is it. Believe it or not the S&P 500 has gone up the past nine sessions and it’s been a long time since it’s done that. So a down day today is not so bad. The recent run has pretty much put things back…