01/02/18

Good Evening, Yes I checked the date twice but I have no doubt that will type 2017 a time or two before I get used to the new year. So feel free to remind me as you almost always do when I make a mistake! Now on to the market. A resurgent tech sector led the market to some nice gains on the first trading session of the year. It’s always good to start out in the green but don’t be surprised to see some type of pullback occur before the end of January. We’re do for one to reset things after the latest run up. That said, I still expect the rally to continue for at least the first two quarters of 2018. I am seeing a bunch of really bullish charts for individual stocks which tells me we should move up. So even though I am expecting to see a pullback soon I am also expecting to make money through the spring. As usual, I’ll remind you that we are not looking at crystal balls but charts so react to whatever you see on the charts. Sometimes they go as expected and sometimes they don’t……..

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment got off to a nice start for 2018 with a gain of +0.88%. For comparison, the Dow was up +0.42%, the Nasdaq +1.50% and the S&P 500 +0.83%. Praise God for a good start to the new year!

 

Wall Street begins 2018 with gains; tech drives momentum

The days trading left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +0.88% for the year. Here are the latest posted returns:

 

12/29/17 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.5405 18.115 37.6103 48.4661 30.8556
$ Change 0.0030 0.0244 -0.1929 -0.3255 0.1133
% Change day +0.02% +0.13% -0.51% -0.67% +0.37%
% Change week +0.06% +0.51% -0.33% -0.17% +0.94%
% Change month +0.20% +0.48% +1.11% +0.47% +1.60%
% Change year +2.33% +3.82% +21.82% +18.22% +25.42%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.5506 26.8902 30.7362 33.4787 19.3966
$ Change -0.0061 -0.0211 -0.0468 -0.0622 -0.0422
% Change day -0.03% -0.08% -0.15% -0.19% -0.22%
% Change week +0.09% +0.09% +0.10% +0.10% +0.10%
% Change month +0.41% +0.57% +0.81% +0.92% +1.00%
% Change year +6.19% +9.86% +14.54% +16.77% +18.81%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: Price has formed a classic bullish wedge. I have found this to be a pretty reliable pattern!
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
Our plan remains to be invested in small and mid caps which should get the biggest boost from the new corporate tax cut. So our task remains to monitor our charts to first look for changes in the current market character and second to make sure that we remain in the fund or funds making the best gains. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 09/08/25

    Good Morning, The train left the station after Fridays jobs report. That may have well been the bottom of the current dip. It is now highly likely that the Fed will reduce rates on Sept 17th. More on that later. Right now lets focus on our trains next stop which will be Wednesdays Producer Price…

  • 09/01/25

    Good Afternoon, Happy Labor Day! I hope this note finds you enjoying some fine cuisine fresh off the grill! Well here we are starting a new month. The dreaded month of September. The weakest month for the stock market since the 20’s and here we are 100% invested in equities. What gives? First of all…

  • 08/24/2024

    Good Afternoon, We talked last week about Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Wyoming being a possible inflection point for the market and that’s exactly what it ended up being. The Fed chairman gave a somewhat dovish address in which he noted that  “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting…