Good Evening,
I have decided to re-position my portfolio, Yes Sir, I have decided to invest in everything connected to Maalox and Tums. Traders are going to consume such a great quantity of both products in 2015 that their stocks are bound to fly! The market sold off hard today. Commodities were hit hard, especially metals. Copper was decimated in after hours trading with the selling extending into the day and including all copper related stocks as well as other industrial metals such as palladium. Then, as a result of options expiration, oil reversed in mid-afternoon, going from well over 2% down to having its biggest gain in two years. The dumping of copper was the result of a World Bank forecast showing concern over global economic weakness. This caused deep selling in the morning with a wild swing off of lows in the afternoon. The major indices managed to pare most of their losses for the day, but still finished well in the red. As a result, our TSP allocation dropped -0.507% and AMP fell back -0.77%. For comparison, the Dow lost -1.06%, the Nasdaq -0.48%, and the S&P 500 was off -0.58%.
The day’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 34/C, 66/S. Our allocation is now -1.42% on the year, not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 01/13/15 |
|
|
|
|
| Fund |
G Fund |
F Fund |
C Fund |
S Fund |
I Fund |
| Price |
14.6275 |
16.997 |
26.7101 |
35.7574 |
23.8649 |
| $ Change |
0.0008 |
0.0126 |
-0.0662 |
0.0122 |
0.0367 |
| % Change day |
+0.01% |
+0.07% |
-0.25% |
+0.03% |
+0.15% |
| % Change week |
+0.02% |
+0.32% |
-1.05% |
-0.49% |
+0.43% |
| % Change month |
+0.08% |
+1.16% |
-1.68% |
-1.48% |
-1.46% |
| % Change year |
+0.08% |
+1.16% |
-1.68% |
-1.49% |
-1.46% |
|
L INC |
L 2020 |
L 2030 |
L 2040 |
L 2050 |
| Price |
17.4186 |
22.7401 |
24.5753 |
26.0899 |
14.7674 |
| $ Change |
-0.0021 |
-0.0079 |
-0.0109 |
-0.0131 |
-0.0081 |
| % Change day |
-0.01% |
-0.03% |
-0.04% |
-0.05% |
-0.05% |
| % Change week |
-0.08% |
-0.23% |
-0.31% |
-0.37% |
-0.41% |
| % Change month |
-0.18% |
-0.69% |
-0.93% |
-1.10% |
-1.28% |
| % Change year |
-0.18% |
-0.69% |
-0.93% |
-1.10% |
-1.28% |
|
Lets take a look at the S&P 500 (C Fund). (Chart courtesy of
Stockcharts.com)
The chart is still a neutral with two indicators in negative territory. More than likely that will be three indicators in negative territory tomorrow. The Williams %R will move to a sell signal if price continues to slide. We are still watching resistance at the 100 EMA. Should that break, price will probably drop to the 1970 level which would amount to a 5.7% drop from the C Fund’s December all-time high. In the event that support at 1970 breaks the downside, target will be in the 1858 area which would amount to an 11% decline for the S&P. I don’t have to tell you that a 10% decline is the technical definition of a correction.
We are due for a real correction. The trick is to hold as long as we can, but not too long. Under our current set of indicators, we would require all four of our indicators to give a sell signal. The sell signal for price would be the 20 EMA passing down through the 50 EMA. That will be the point where the risk just isn’t worth the reward. Anytime you enter correction territory there is always a chance that the market could erode further and enter bear market territory which they define as a 20 percent or greater decline. As a technical analyst, I have my own definition of a bear market and that is when the 50 EMA crosses down through the 200 EMA. I commonly refer to that as an upside down chart. When the S&P 500 chart is upside down, the only place you want to be is 100% in a traditional Safe Haven. Well that’s all the doom and gloom tonight. Am I worried? No! God has never let this group down!! Give Him all the praise!! Hopefully, we’ll get an oversold bounce tomorrow. Have a great evening and I’ll see you all tomorrow.
Scott
