Good Evening,
Ouch, that hurt! I knew it would, but that didn’t take much of the sting out of a big sell off. So, do we re-balance? Lets take a look at the news and charts and make a decision.
Dow suffers worst week since 2011
The day’s sell off left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. Our current allocation is 64/S, 36/I, but in lieu of a possible correction I will re-balance tonight. Remember, it’s not what you make it’s what you keep. It’s possible that we could get left in the dust, but this market does not look or act like it did in 2013 so we will take no chances. I’ll send out an E-Mail as soon as I have all the data and the charts to re-balance…. Here are the latest results:
| 01/23/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.3094 | 15.9247 | 23.6395 | 33.9755 | 25.5775 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0566 | -0.2114 | -0.2648 | -0.0942 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.36% | -0.89% | -0.77% | -0.37% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | +0.22% | -0.54% | +0.22% | -0.16% |
| % Change month | +0.16% | +1.16% | -0.99% | +0.91% | +0.05% |
| % Change year | +0.16% | +1.16% | -0.99% | +0.91% | +0.05% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.833 | 21.7853 | 23.4389 | 24.8101 | 14.0446 |
| $ Change | -0.0205 | -0.0753 | -0.1047 | -0.1282 | -0.0821 |
| % Change day | -0.12% | -0.34% | -0.44% | -0.51% | -0.58% |
| % Change week | -0.02% | -0.12% | -0.16% | -0.18% | -0.21% |
| % Change month | +0.10% | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.13% |
| % Change year | +0.10% | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.13% |
Actually, while there was some damage to the charts it’s not as bad as we might have thought.
I-Fund: Now that was ugly to be sure….
And the F Fund: Bonds where definitely the best bet today. It’s easy to see where this one is generating a solid buy signal.
So how deep will the market correct? I’m not even going to take a guess, but my charts tell me there will likely be more. Monday could be interesting, if the market goes like last year we will bounce back with a vengeance. I think a bounce is likely on Monday, but my guess is that it will be a dead cat bounce. A trap for the bulls. I haven’t felt comfortable with this market since the first of the year and think that now is the time to be cautious until this uncertainty is over. A correction by definition is one that is 10% or more. A good correction would benefit us at this time by creating more room for the bulls to run on the other side so lets get it over with and the deeper the better! We will play defense and return to equities when our charts improve. We still have most of our earnings from 2013 in tact and we will keep them that way! Pray for our group and God will bring us through this year with a profit as He almost always has. Just a note for those of you considering retirement: It is frustrating for me to watch those of you that are still navigating TSP on a day like today. You have no choice, but to wait a day or a day and a half to move your money to safe havens. I was able to move all the funds to safe havens in our Thrift style fund AMP as soon as the sell off started this morning. Not only were we able to avert most of the losses, but we were actually able to turn things around and make a little money today as we have some great defensive funds available when the time to play defense comes. You just can’t protect your gains as well as you need to in TSP. Just food for though and yes of course, I can assist you if you need it. However, the important thing is to protect your capital somewhere. It most assuredly does not have to be with me ( : . That’s all for tonight. I will put out a message shortly with the new allocation. May God continue to bless your trades! Have a great weekend and stay warm. Even you folks in Florida…
God bless,
Scott
