01/28/2015

Good Evening,

The Apple earnings pleased the market and drove it up early. Then it started to mark time until the 2:00 PM EST release of the FED minutes. So what did the FED say? In a nutshell, the Federal Reserve said it would remain “patient” on raising rates, but indicated that it saw the U.S. economy getting stronger. The statement completely dropped the phrase “considerable time” from its language referring to tightening. The result was the market decided to sell off.

You can debate on whether or not the FED will raise rates this year, but my take on the statement is that they definitely left the door open to do so, and maybe sooner than we thought. Either way, you just can’t argue with the pricing action. After the FED announcement, the action was down.

The selling left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment fell -1.415% and AMP dropped -0.629%. For comparison, the Dow lost -1.08%, the Nasdaq -0.93%, and the S&P -1.35%.

Wall Street ends lower after Fed statement, oil drop

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 50/C, 50/S. Our allocation is now -0.27% on the year, not including the day’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
01/27/15
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.6395 17.0499 26.8042 36.3917 24.8437
$ Change 0.0009 0.0062 -0.3628 -0.2182 0.2073
% Change day +0.01% +0.04% -1.34% -0.60% +0.84%
% Change week +0.02% -0.02% -1.08% +0.48% +1.64%
% Change month +0.16% +1.48% -1.33% +0.26% +2.58%
% Change year +0.16% +1.48% -1.33% +0.26% +2.58%
L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.485 22.949 24.8609 26.4351 14.9926
$ Change -0.0227 -0.0647 -0.0909 -0.1124 -0.0686
% Change day -0.13% -0.28% -0.36% -0.42% -0.46%
% Change week -0.02% +0.00% +0.01% +0.02% +0.05%
% Change month +0.20% +0.22% +0.22% +0.21% +0.23%
% Change year +0.20% +0.22% +0.22% +0.21% +0.23%
Here’s what the C fund looked like today. (Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com.)
C Fund: This chart is now Neutral with three out of four indicators in a negative configuration. Only price remains positive with the 20 EMA over the 50 EMA. There was quite a bit of damage done to this chart in the last two days. Continued pressure on the price could generate a sell signal. We will have to watch all our equity based charts carefully.
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There’s really no need to speculate. Our job right now is to monitor our charts closely to determine if this market has decided to change directions. There are several market pundits out there that are saying the the big correction is overdue. The problem is that they have been saying it for few years now. I will say this: the bears have a lot more ammunition than they have had for a while and you can bet they are going to press to the downside aggressively. Will they get squeezed yet again? Sooner or later they will be successful and when they are they will proclaim how they called the top. However, when they do so they will conveniently forget they last ten times they called the top and were wrong. It says here not to trust anyone who says they now the exact top or bottom of a market! It’s kind of the same thing as trying to predict the return of Jesus. We may know the season, but not the exact time! That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening!
God bless,
Scott 8-)



Written By

Scott Grimes

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