Good Evening,
Our move to a defensive stance has served us well…
Stocks sink on Fed, emerging market fears
The day’s selling left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, and F-Buy. Our current allocation is 10/G, 90/F. It’s
performance is -3.00% in 2014. Here are the latest posted results:
| 01/28/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.3144 | 15.9393 | 23.1758 | 33.1052 | 24.8367 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | 0.0185 | 0.1418 | 0.3504 | 0.0360 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.12% | +0.62% | +1.07% | +0.15% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | -0.02% | +0.13% | -0.07% | -0.12% |
| % Change month | +0.19% | +1.26% | -2.93% | -1.68% | -2.85% |
| % Change year | +0.19% | +1.26% | -2.93% | -1.68% | -2.85% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.7621 | 21.525 | 23.0785 | 24.3681 | 13.7592 |
| $ Change | 0.0209 | 0.0638 | 0.0887 | 0.1101 | 0.0692 |
| % Change day | +0.12% | +0.30% | +0.39% | +0.45% | +0.51% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.02% | +0.02% | +0.02% | +0.01% |
| % Change month | -0.32% | -1.24% | -1.62% | -1.88% | -2.16% |
| % Change year | -0.32% | -1.24% | -1.62% | -1.88% | -2.16% |
Here is the latest on the charts from Carl Swenlin: His analysis is rock solid…
There was a small oversold bounce today, which I interpret as being the beginning of a right shoulder. Please understand that I see the head and shoulders outcome as a strong possibility, but it is not a prediction, per se. A lot can happen between now and the completion of the right shoulder, and I am prepared to abandon this assessment with no regrets, but it has merit at this point.
Intermediate-Term Indicators: Not nearly oversold enough historically, but they are oversold relative to the indicator range in the last six months.
Conclusion: While I would welcome a continuation of the correction (we really need to flush some of the excess out of the system), the indicators are poised to support another rally. This fits nicely with my head and shoulders scenario, but it could be more robust than that; however, if the market bias has truly turned bearish, the indicators can also accommodate a break down through support, that would be a whole new ball game. The Fed comments tomorrow could kick it either way.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Of course, the Fed comments did kick the market….down the steps….and we were ready for it. Currently our equity based charts are all showing sell signals and our defensive funds (the G and F funds) have green lights. Our allocation is down a few points so far this year, but our main focus in a market like this is to preserve our capital. If the selling goes deep enough it should present us with another excellent opportunity to produce some gains. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades.
Scott
