01/30/15

Good Evening,

I know that this market is frustrating to each one of you. The market continues to oscillate between established support and resistance. It’s up one day and down the next. One week it has a negative bias, the next it is positive. The increased volatility signals a market that really doesn’t know which way to go. As we deal with it, we continue to wait for it to resolve one way or the other. To commit all your resources to offense or defense leads to success one day and extreme pain the next. To take a middle of the road approach leaves you treading water. I prefer the middle of the road approach as it recently has led to a better average than selling out one way or the other. The AMP allocation is invested more in that manner.

The bottom line is that nobody is going to be able to hold on to any gains until the market breaks one way or the other. Personally, I don’t really care which way that is. There are options available to us each way. The current problem is that nothing really works well in both directions, up or down. We need a market that knows where it’s going to generate and hold on to some gains. Until then, we remain in no man’s land…

Today, the new Greek finance minister said the new government would not work with European Union in regard to their monetary assistance. Simply put, they are done with austerity measures. That was the only excuse the market needed and the selling was on. The market did swing up briefly on an 8% spike in oil before it resumed its plummet. It was funny in that it was the v-shaped bounce perma-bulls that were panicking to the exit! We will not panic here. We will survey the damage, check out the charts and decide what we are going to do about it. In the mean time, we’ll wonder out loud if they are going to save Greece again on Monday… That would sure be nice!

The action left us with some gaping holes in the hull of the ship. TSP was off -1.445% and AMP didn’t fare much better at -1.365%. There was really no where to hide but bonds and they are a ticking time bomb. For comparison, the Dow lost -1.45%, the Nasdaq -1.03%, and the S&P -1.30%. Like I said, there was nowhere to hide.

 

Wall St. closes down for January, Shake Shack rallies in debut

 

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Buy. Did you notice the Buy on the F Fund? That has turned out to be an extremely accurate signal to say the least! We are currently invested at 50/C, 50/S, but will rebalance our allocation as soon as today’s results are posted. Our allocation is now -0.76%, not including today’s results.
Here are the latest posted results:
01/29/15
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.6412 17.0998 26.6987 36.1736 24.6362
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0216 0.2546 0.3214 0.1239
% Change day +0.01% -0.13% +0.96% +0.90% +0.51%
% Change week +0.03% +0.28% -1.47% -0.12% +0.79%
% Change month +0.17% +1.77% -1.72% -0.34% +1.73%
% Change year +0.17% +1.77% -1.72% -0.34% +1.73%
L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.4712 22.8891 24.7751 26.3285 14.922
$ Change 0.0284 0.0927 0.1299 0.1599 0.1021
% Change day +0.16% +0.41% +0.53% +0.61% +0.69%
% Change week -0.10% -0.26% -0.34% -0.39% -0.42%
% Change month +0.12% -0.04% -0.13% -0.19% -0.24%
% Change year +0.12% -0.04% -0.13% -0.19% -0.24%
Here’s the C Fund:
There are four sell signals giving the C Fund an overall sell signal. I have them annotated with green circles. I used my personal chart tonight as I have the burn limits clearly marked in case you are trying to decide how much pain you can take before you decide to sell.
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More volatility. The F Fund managed a new record today. With record-low bond yields, it makes you wonder just how far that one can really run. After looking the charts over closely, I have decided to rebalance my allocation. I will send out a message to let you know what the new allocation is. Bottom line: we got extended to the downside in a hurry today and are primed for a bounce on Monday. That would be my bet, but a break below 1970 could signal more pain to come. If that occurs, the next probable stop would be at 1860, which (as you can see) is minus 11.1% from the December high. Price at 1860 would make this the first real correction in over two years. I’m not saying that is what is going to happen. I’m just pointing out some highlights on the chart. That’s all for now.
Have a great weekend and enjoy the Superbowl. I’ll probably watch it along with the rest of America, but as they say in Georgia. I ain’t got no dog in that fight. I’m a long suffering Miami fan! Go Fins!!!
See you all Monday.
God bless,
Scott8-)



  • 05/12/25

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  • 05/05/25

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  • 04/29/2025

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