Good Evening, The market sold off again today in the biggest one day decline since August. The media went on and on about it, giving a myriad of reasons for the sell off. No doubt some of them are valid reasons. I’m not going to make fun of their analysis. You can read all about it in the link below. What I post there is part of what I actually read every night. It’s good to keep a pulse on what’s driving the market. Yes the market went down. But you know what, I’m not worried. I don’t have a sell signal in even one of our equity based charts. A serious sell off would test the 50 EMA. Until that level is breached and breached well there is little reason to even be concerned. No technical barriers have been breached. By the matter of fact all of our equity based TSP charts are still trading above their 20 Day Moving Averages. So far this is just a run of the mill sell off. Did any of you think the market would go up every day and never drop more than a tenth or two? A lot of the media and a lot of traders became spoiled during 2017 when the market continued to rise without a dip of more than 2-3%. I’m not sure that ever happened before. I certainly can’t remember it in my 20 plus years of trading. Of course the quantitative easing by the Fed was unprecedented as well. If you go back far enough in the archives you will see where we talked about the fact that we were on uncharted ground.  2017 was not a normal year. That was not a normal market. A normal healthy market will have declines and even corrections which are defined as a decline of 10% or more. That’ the nature of the market beast. You say Scott your a perma bull, a buy and holder. Nope, wait just a minute. You should look at every pullback with skepticism. You should watch every one closely to make sure it doesn’t turn into a bear market. That’s the reason you watch the charts in the first place. But as I have said many times in this blog. Panic is not a strategy. When the market drops you raise your level of awareness but you never panic. If you do it correctly it’s just another day in the office. The chart tells you based on multiple indicators (not just one) to sell and you sell. Then you wait for multiple indicators to tell you to buy. Of course the less indicators you have to support a buy signal the more risk you incur. So you just have to decide what your individual risk tolerance is. I can tell you this much. If your inclination is to sell every time the wind blows your probably better off staying out of stocks. As for me? I remain bullish on the first six months of 2018 if not the whole year….

The days selloff left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment dropped -1.09%. For comparison, the Dow lost -1.37%, the Nasdaq -0.86%, an the S&P 500 -1.09%. No doubt about it. It was a see of red.

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +4.63% on the year. Here are the latest posted results.

God bless, Scott 

 

 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

 

 

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 

 

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected].