Good Day, Well last week was a real rollercoaster ride. The market sold off all week as the silver and crypto trades came unraveled and then recovered with a massive rally on Friday. Our charts indicated that the selloff was bottoming. So we stayed in the C fund rather than move to the G Fund as many did. Nonetheless, it was nerve wracking. This week finds us wondering if we can trust Friday’s rally. Was it real or was it a dead cat bounce? Was it the dip our charts had been predicting? If it was, it certainly wasn’t very deep which leaves me skeptical of the whole thing. As of this time, I am inclined to move to the S Fund as the chart is slightly better. However, if we were to have a true correction of 10% or more that would most definitely not be the place to be as small and midcaps drop a lot faster than large caps during a selloff. Then there’s the I fund that actually has the best chart of them all. The only problem is that our current chart (EFA) includes China and the index that that the new I Fund follows does not. The problem with that is that there is no ETF that follows the same index as the new I fund. So we have nothing exact to follow. Of course, we can watch the dollar and  invest in the I fund when it drops and makes foreign equities more attractive, but that includes making investment decisions based on the chart for the dollar and while that’s nice there are still many other issues than can befall the I fund which we would be unable to see. That leaves us partially blind where the I fund is concerned. The old chart for the EFA is somewhat accurate. If I had to put a percentage on it, I’d have to say about 75%.  All in all, the whole thing leaves me with with a certain degree of distrust for the S and I Funds right now. So can we out perform the C and S Funds by drilling down on the C Fund? Maybe and maybe not. Is the C Fund the safest bet for us right now? Probably so. If this were contest to see who can get the highest return I would definitely m0ve the the S and/or I Funds right now, but it is not. This is retirement money not gambling money. It’s more important to make a consistent return than it is to win a contest. So I’ll look at the charts carefully and I won’t rule out a move but I will be really cautious in the event that I actually do move.

This weeks all about the delayed jobs report and continued earnings that come in.  Investors also will be watching for the delayed January jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is due out Wednesday. The release was initially scheduled for last Friday but was postponed due to the partial government shutdown. It also comes after ADP reported last week that private payrolls increased by a mere 22,000 in January, well below expectations. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate the closely watched jobs report will show a gain of 55,000 in January. Also delayed due to the partial government shutdown was the January consumer price index reading which is due out Friday, with the consensus looking for a 2.5% annual rate. These readings will be closely followed as investors try to determine what the Feds next move will be. My opinion is that the Fed won’t cut rates again until June, but either of these reports could greatly influence when that actually happens.

For now, I will stick with the C, but if I feel the market is truly becoming risk off I will not  hesitate to move to the S and/or I funds and folks don’t forget to keep praying for our group. As I have always told you, that is the real reason for any success that we have had…..

Todays trading so far has generated the following returns. Our TSP allotment is trading higher at +0.71%. For comparison, the Dow is adding +0.09%, the Nasdaq +1.08%, and the S&P 500 +0.71%. Thank God f0r another day in the green!!

S&P 500 rises, led by tech; Dow climbs to fresh record: Live updates

Last weeks trading left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-buy. We are currently invested at 100/C. Out allocation is now -0.82% not including todays results. Here are the latest posted results:

More Prices & Returns

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.