02/26/19

Good Evening, After looking at mixed corporate and economic data in addition to considering the negotiations with China investors decided to not to chase the market higher and booked a few of their profits from the recent run. At this point I think the market can and probably will move higher but will require more information to do so. That information will probably come in the form of news regarding the trade negotiations with China. Some market players say there will be a sell the news reaction when and if we have an agreement. However, that really depends on if a trade agreement is already priced into stocks. Taking into consideration the fact the the S&P 500 just regained it’s 200 day moving average and has yet to have it’s 50 day moving average cross up through the 200 after Decembers sell off I find it highly unlikely that a trade deal has been fully priced in. It is my opinion that this market has room to move higher given a positive catalyst. Of course as usual I will watch my charts and react to what I see. That said it’s always good to have a plan based on where you think the market will go……..

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a drop of -0.52%. For comparison, the Dow fell -0.13%, the Nasdaq -0.07%, and the S&P -0.08%. It was not a good day for small and mid cap stocks. The S Fund is made up entirely of small and mid caps……

 

Wall St. edges lower in choppy session

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +7.44% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.

 

02/25/19 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 16.0582 18.3542 40.227 51.792 29.229
$ Change 0.0035 -0.0081 0.0553 0.0346 0.1194
% Change day +0.02% -0.04% +0.14% +0.07% +0.41%
% Change week +0.02% -0.04% +0.14% +0.07% +0.41%
% Change month +0.18% +0.10% +3.59% +5.49% +2.64%
% Change year +0.41% +1.17% +11.89% +17.77% +9.42%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 20.2211 27.7867 31.7745 34.5785 20.0173
$ Change 0.0120 0.0213 0.0438 0.0554 0.0360
% Change day +0.06% +0.08% +0.14% +0.16% +0.18%
% Change week +0.06% +0.08% +0.14% +0.16% +0.18%
% Change month +0.85% +1.15% +2.18% +2.59% +2.94%
% Change year +2.70% +3.71% +7.21% +8.59% +9.81%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund: The I Fund generated an overall buy signal when it’s 5 EMA passed up through it’s 200 EMA. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA  or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.  Yes I know, I fudged on the SCTR for this signal……
F Fund:
We can expect some rough seas until when get some solid news from the trade negotiations. So far it’s nothing we can’t handle. Be advised that I am also keeping a close eye on my proprietary indicators that I do not share on line. Should enough of them ever go south I will move straight to the sidelines without hesitation. I made the mistake of ignoring them this past October and you know the results. Suffice to say, that won’t happen again. That said, they are all good for now. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott Sunglasses
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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