Good Evening, It’s a new month. So can we make another monthly gain in 2018? We’re definitely off to a rocky start, but I have to ask if you all are surprised? We talked in earlier blogs about how the economy would eventually overheat and the Fed would deal with it. It’s the natural cycle of things. However, that cycle was disrupted by quantitative easing after the financial crisis and is just now getting back on track. It’s not to be feared just respected. It’s the unknown that made us a little nervous. That was the uncharted territory that we were in during quantitative easing but that’s all behind us now. Yesterday the Fed met and the tone of their report was hawkish indicating possibly as many as three interest rate increases in 2018 as they see inflation rising. So where have you heard that before…… So why don’t I fear this???? You just have to realize two things #1 We are in the up trend now and this is where we need to make money. This is not the time to hold back and #2 A Downturn will come. You must be aware that nobody and I mean nobody knows when that will come. If they say they do put on your Nikes and run away as fast as you can. What you must do is both plain and simple. You must make as much money now as you can while the market is moving higher. Then when your charts based on mathematics and not your heart based on emotions tells you it’s time to get out you sell. Yes, the amount of money in your portfolio will definitely drop from it’s high. That’s the price of doing business. So prepare for it!!! The great news is this. If you do what your supposed to do now you’ll have money to cover the turn and more. That’s not market timing regardless of what some may tell you. No! It’s following the trend and if you do it right it’s just another day in the office. Leave the sweating to someone else!!!

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped -0.06%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.14%, the Nasdaq lost -0.35%, and the S&P 500 was flat at -0.06%.

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Sell. For those of you that love to have something to worry about the aforementioned Neutral signals are not one of them. Different systems use different terms. Here we think of Neutral as no mans land. We think of it as an area on the chart where things can go either way. Other systems use the term market perform or hold to denote the same thing. Actually, hold describes what you need to do the best. You need to HOLD the stock or fund. It is not a panic button or a sell signal!!!! The oly reason you need to sell a neutral or hold signal is if you want to move the cash to something with a buy signal and that would preferably be a new buy signal. So the moral of the story is think of it as a Neutral or HOLD signal. That said, we are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +4.68% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

God bless, Scott 

 

 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

 

 

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 

 

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected].