02/04/2015

Good Evening,

Oil was down, bad news out of Greece, the S&P 500 closed down. That’s really all there is to it. We can talk about the world news, but these two issues are what is and has been driving the market. Two that are working are: #1 Consumer discretionary stocks are doing well with the dip in oil and #2 Home building stocks are feeding off of low interest rates. Nothing we can really do about that in TSP, but in AMP…

The day’s mixed action left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped back -0.11% while AMP was king of the day at +0.12%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.04%, the Nasdaq lost -0.23% and the S&P dropped -0.42%. Our TSP and AMP allotments fared well against the big three. Oh, by the way my target for oil is still in the $35.00 to $42.00 per barrel range. I believe that oil will not bottom until the fourth quarter (Oct- Dec) of 2015.

Wall St. ends lower with oil prices, renewed Greece worries

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 50/F, 50/S. Our allocation is now -0.45% on the year, not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
02/03/15
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.6452 17.0902 27.0804 36.558 25.0511
$ Change 0.0006 -0.0740 0.3859 0.6196 0.4284
% Change day +0.00% -0.43% +1.45% +1.72% +1.74%
% Change week +0.02% -0.40% +2.76% +2.62% +2.22%
% Change month +0.02% -0.40% +2.76% +2.62% +2.22%
% Change year +0.20% +1.72% -0.31% +0.72% +3.44%
L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.5246 23.0597 25.0096 26.6121 15.1042
$ Change 0.0510 0.1793 0.2517 0.3096 0.2003
% Change day +0.29% +0.78% +1.02% +1.18% +1.34%
% Change week +0.51% +1.29% +1.67% +1.92% +2.18%
% Change month +0.51% +1.29% +1.67% +1.92% +2.18%
% Change year +0.42% +0.70% +0.82% +0.88% +0.97%

 

 

Remember what I said about the I Fund? Look at that change per year. However, it would be fair to say that nice gain may be hard to hold with all the turmoil in the Euro Zone. That said, the I fund has been beat down the most and thus has the most room to run if the conditions become favorable. It bares watching.

 

 

Here’s what the C fund looked like today:
The C Fund remains on a precarious buy signal as two of our indicators (Price and MAC-D) are subject to whipsaw at any time. Volume remains a little over average. Today’s price fell back into the bearish wedge. The expectation for this pattern is for it to break down. However, like I said yesterday, it is possible for the pattern to resolve upward. Possible but not probable. The PMO has turned up but still remains below its EMA and the Williams %R has turned down which is short-term bearish. However, this indicator is ultra short-term and can easily whipsaw.
24
Nothing new to add here. Price on most charts is oscillating in a 4% band that will ultimately resolve up or down. So our task is to monitor the charts and react to that event when it takes place. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
Scott 8-)


Written By

Scott Grimes

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