Good Evening, After a look at the current market it’s obvious what’s driving it. Two things: First and to a greater extent, emotion and speculation over what the Trump Administration is doing and what they might do. Remember one thing. If I never told you anything else, the market hates uncertainty and that is exactly what this controversial administration has brought. For the most part, the market reacts negatively to uncertainty. However, occasionally it trades off of emotion that things will be better or worse. Depending on what day you read the news concerning the Trump administration the market may have a positive or negative spin. Sorry, don’t expect that to change anytime soon…. Second and to a lesser degree, the market is trading off of earnings. God forbid that we could ever trade entirely on fundamentals like that! Things would be too easy!!! At any rate that’s where we are. So what can you do about it?? Don’t get caught looking at a few trees that are losing their leaves and forget the whole forest! In other words keep your eye on the long term trends. Watch the 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages on your charts. Are they still moving up?? If so then your making money despite all this political noise! Also and not to be overlooked, the computer trading algorithms that have been written to play on your emotions and fake you out may change the 5, 10, or maybe even the 20 day moving averages. However, they don’t really have the power to move the longer term indicators and in a market like this and that is what you must watch! Enough said, you get the picture.
Today’s trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment dropped -0.44%. For comparison, the Dow slipped -0.09%, the Nasdaq -0.06%, and the S&P 500 -0.21%.
Stocks Sink as Investors Digest President Trump’s Moves
The recent action has left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +3.25% for the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 02/03/17 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.2205 | 17.46 | 31.7265 | 42.3278 | 25.4583 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | -0.0178 | 0.2314 | 0.5163 | 0.0790 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.10% | +0.73% | +1.23% | +0.31% |
| % Change week | +0.05% | -0.05% | +0.16% | +0.56% | +0.04% |
| % Change month | +0.02% | -0.17% | +0.85% | +1.07% | +0.57% |
| % Change year | +0.22% | +0.07% | +2.77% | +3.25% | +3.48% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 18.553 | 24.8144 | 27.3695 | 29.33 | 16.7483 |
| $ Change | 0.0249 | 0.0684 | 0.1161 | 0.1467 | 0.0960 |
| % Change day | +0.13% | +0.28% | +0.43% | +0.50% | +0.58% |
| % Change week | +0.07% | +0.10% | +0.13% | +0.15% | +0.17% |
| % Change month | +0.16% | +0.33% | +0.50% | +0.58% | +0.67% |
| % Change year | +0.78% | +1.38% | +1.99% | +2.30% | +2.59% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund: Bonds are starting to wake up. Could this mean a downturn for stocks? Possibly. We need to keep an eye on this fund.
Nothing to panic about just yet, but as I mentioned above bonds are starting to wake up just a little. Not always, but sometimes this is an early warning sign for a downturn in stocks. For us that means the C, S and I funds. As always, we’ll watch our charts and play the action that we see. Right now the trend is still up. That’s all for now. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
