02/09/2015

Good Evening,

Oil was up, but that was about the only thing. There was a slow drip down through the afternoon and pretty much everything else finished down. The three big concerns according to the media were the Greek situation, the Chinese economy, and renewed concern about rising interest rates.

As a reactive trader, I don’t care as much about the why as I do the what, and right now the what is down. Today, nothing I had worked. I didn’t even have one stock or ETF with a gain. Not that things were really horrendous. It’s just that there weren’t any good opportunities (unless you consider oil and I’m just not convinced that it’s found the bottom yet). Those that tried bottom fishing in oil last time including myself ended up vacating those positions. For that reason, I’m more than just a little skeptical about the run in oil. I’m going to have a see a really good chart in anything related to oil before I’ll buy. Bottom fishing can be lucrative when you hit it. However, most of the time you are better off to wait for a good solid buy signal before you jump. Just consider any missed profits as insurance. Nine times out of ten, that’s the best thing to do.

Today’s action left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped -0.522% and AMP was off -0.53%. For comparison, the Dow lost -0.53%, the Nasdaq -0.39%, the S&P 500 was -0.42%, AT&T was -0.66% and Alaska Air was off -3.66% as Transportation Stocks again took an unfair hit from rising oil.

Wall St. ends down on Greece, China worries

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 30/C, 40/S, 30/I. Our allocation is now -0.41% on the year, not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
02/06/15
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.6471 16.9864 27.1735 36.8033 24.913
$ Change 0.0006 -0.0876 -0.0854 -0.1009 -0.2765
% Change day +0.00% -0.51% -0.31% -0.27% -1.10%
% Change week +0.03% -1.01% +3.12% +3.31% +1.65%
% Change month +0.03% -1.01% +3.12% +3.31% +1.65%
% Change year +0.21% +1.10% +0.03% +1.40% +2.87%
L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.5257 23.0682 25.025 26.6359 15.1197
$ Change -0.0226 -0.0697 -0.0952 -0.1137 -0.0729
% Change day -0.13% -0.30% -0.38% -0.43% -0.48%
% Change week +0.51% +1.33% +1.73% +2.02% +2.29%
% Change month +0.51% +1.33% +1.73% +2.02% +2.29%
% Change year +0.43% +0.74% +0.88% +0.97% +1.08%
Here’s what the C Fund looked like today.
While the C Fund had an off day, there was no real technical damage done as price is still above the 20 EMA. The chart still remains on a solid buy signal as does the S Fund with all four indicators in a positive configuration. The Williams %R turned down slightly, which is Ultra Short term bearish, but that’s not a real big deal. Volume was pretty low so I’m not sure how much we can read into today’s action anyway. Both the MAC-D and PMO remain in positive territory and remain on solid buy signals. It’s going to take a lot more than today’s negative action to bring down this chart. We’ll see if it can challenge upper resistance again in the next few days.
29
Oil, Greece, and US interest rates… Right now, that’s about the whole game. The market remains in no man’s land and can’t decide which way it’s going to go. Is it in a topping process or is it consolidating before another leg up? Right now I favor the latter as strong seasonality is behind us. We’ll keep an eye on the charts and see. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless,
Scott8-)


Written By

Scott Grimes

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