02/13/18

Good Evening, Three good days in a row! Woo Hoo! We’re not out of the woods by any means, but we’re getting very close to the edge. Stocks started off in the red this morning and a down day really wouldn’t have been surprising after yesterdays rally. However stocks came back in the afternoon session to finish in the green with all the major indices posting modest gains. The important thing is that we held onto the gains of the past two days. If you take a look that things we are really not in bad shape as we’re currently only in the hole about a percent. Obviously, with God’s guidance we made the right decision to stay in the market. That said lets move on to tomorrow. Inflation kicked this little sell off in gear and tomorrow’s focus will again be on inflation. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be released tomorrow morning. It is a measure of the rise and fall of you guessed it, consumer prices. Investors are waiting to get the report out of the way before committing to any more serious buying. While buying this dip is the popular trade they are wary of the land mine that is inflation. If the report comes in as expected or less than expected it will be rally on. If it comes in hot then selling and volatility will be the theme of the day.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment added +0.26%. For comparison, the Dow was up +0.16%, the Nasdaq +0.45%, and the S&P 500 +0.26%. Thank God for another good day!

 

Wall St. advances; investors lock on inflation data

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now -1.46% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.

 

02/12/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.5857 17.7503 37.4321 47.3819 30.4662
$ Change 0.0035 -0.0201 0.5157 0.5120 0.4798
% Change day +0.02% -0.11% +1.40% +1.09% +1.60%
% Change week +0.02% -0.11% +1.40% +1.09% +1.60%
% Change month +0.09% -0.88% -5.86% -5.40% -5.96%
% Change year +0.29% -2.01% -0.47% -2.24% -1.26%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.5386 26.8262 30.5565 33.2266 19.2242
$ Change 0.0575 0.1344 0.2625 0.3354 0.2198
% Change day +0.30% +0.50% +0.87% +1.02% +1.16%
% Change week +0.30% +0.50% +0.87% +1.02% +1.16%
% Change month -1.15% -2.04% -3.59% -4.26% -4.83%
% Change year -0.06% -0.24% -0.58% -0.75% -0.89%

 

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
It’s all about the CPI report tomorrow. We’ll know the short term direction of this market when it’s released. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and I’ll see you tomorrow!
od bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 09/08/25

    Good Morning, The train left the station after Fridays jobs report. That may have well been the bottom of the current dip. It is now highly likely that the Fed will reduce rates on Sept 17th. More on that later. Right now lets focus on our trains next stop which will be Wednesdays Producer Price…

  • 09/01/25

    Good Afternoon, Happy Labor Day! I hope this note finds you enjoying some fine cuisine fresh off the grill! Well here we are starting a new month. The dreaded month of September. The weakest month for the stock market since the 20’s and here we are 100% invested in equities. What gives? First of all…

  • 08/24/2024

    Good Afternoon, We talked last week about Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Wyoming being a possible inflection point for the market and that’s exactly what it ended up being. The Fed chairman gave a somewhat dovish address in which he noted that  “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting…