Good Evening, This morning the CPI report came in higher than economists expected and just as most thought the market headed lower. Then a strange thing happened, it turned back up and moved higher all the way into the close. So whats up? I thought inflation and it’s possible influence on the FED to increase rates at a faster pace was driving the market? So why then did we reverse? Of course the news is always written to match the events which is contrary to what you think. The talking heads all said that traders shrugged off the bad report and focused in the strong economy. Well once the machines kicked in the fear of getting caught in a big selloff turned into the fear of being left behind. In the past if you could figure out the psychology of the herd you could pretty well trade off of it. No longer! Now you must first figure out the psychology of the herd and next figure out what the machines will do to take advantage of it. With the underlying fundamentals supporting a healthy economy the machines were programmed to buy after the selling started. The machines traded for pennies the past year but that’s not the case now. They made big money off of those who sold today. That’s it, plain and simple. It’s a shame, but you have to ignore the short stuff and figure out the big picture. That’s been the only trade that has worked for a good while now…….
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gained +1.34%. For comparison, the Dow was up +1.03%, the Nasdaq +1.86%, and the S&P 500 +1.34%. Thank God for another good day!
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now -1.19% on the year not including today’s gains. Here are the latest posted results.
| 02/13/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.5868 | 17.7517 | 37.5318 | 47.5537 | 30.3231 |
| $ Change | 0.0011 | 0.0014 | 0.0997 | 0.1718 | -0.1431 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.01% | +0.27% | +0.36% | -0.47% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | -0.11% | +1.67% | +1.46% | +1.12% |
| % Change month | +0.10% | -0.88% | -5.61% | -5.06% | -6.40% |
| % Change year | +0.30% | -2.01% | -0.21% | -1.88% | -1.73% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.5421 | 26.8331 | 30.5687 | 33.242 | 19.2343 |
| $ Change | 0.0035 | 0.0069 | 0.0122 | 0.0154 | 0.0101 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.03% | +0.04% | +0.05% | +0.05% |
| % Change week | +0.31% | +0.53% | +0.91% | +1.07% | +1.21% |
| % Change month | -1.13% | -2.02% | -3.55% | -4.21% | -4.78% |
| % Change year | -0.04% | -0.21% | -0.55% | -0.71% | -0.84% |
