02/18/2015

Good Evening,

The EU gave Greece a two week extension to work things out. The FED minutes from their last meeting released today were more dovish that most thought they would be. The market didn’t exactly celebrate, but it did come back from the lows of the day to close flat to slightly off. Also worth noting, bonds rallied on the news that an interest rate increase was unlikely in the near future. If you want to know the details you can read the Reuters report below. I’m more concerned with the what than the why.

 

The day’s action left us with the following results. Our TSP allotment ended up +0.304% and AMP was a model of consistency with its 6th straight gain adding +0.2508%. For comparison, the Dow was off -0.10%, the Nasdaq added +0.14%, the S&P slid back -0.03%, AT&T was -0.63%, Alaska Air Group was +2.57%, Facebook was +1.47% and Apple added another +0.69%. It was a flat day for the market, but a decent day for us! The Lord blessed us with another good day. Give Him the all the praise!!!

Wall St. ends nearly flat; Fed minutes support

 

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 30/C, 40/S, 30/I. Our allocation is now +1.58% on the year not including today’s gains. Here are the latest posted results:

 

 

02/17/15
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.6543 16.861 27.792 37.5496 25.3334
$ Change 0.0027 -0.0848 0.0486 0.0414 0.0334
% Change day +0.02% -0.50% +0.18% +0.11% +0.13%
% Change week +0.02% -0.50% +0.18% +0.11% +0.13%
% Change month +0.08% -1.74% +5.46% +5.40% +3.37%
% Change year +0.26% +0.35% +2.31% +3.45% +4.60%
L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.5974 23.305 25.3552 27.0409 15.3809
$ Change 0.0025 0.0136 0.0191 0.0237 0.0166
% Change day +0.01% +0.06% +0.08% +0.09% +0.11%
% Change week +0.01% +0.06% +0.08% +0.09% +0.11%
% Change month +0.92% +2.37% +3.07% +3.57% +4.05%
% Change year +0.84% +1.77% +2.21% +2.51% +2.82%
Lets take a look at the charts…
C Fund: The C Fund held at resistance today. It remains on a buy signal with all four indicators in a positive configuration.
219
S Fund: The S Fund is a solid buy signal. Price continues to rise in a recently formed ascending channel.
2
The I Fund: The I Fund continues to rise in a clearly established ascending channel. Price closed for the second day above resistance at around 63.90. That resistance now becomes support with a new upper target at resistance near 66.70. Support is marked in Green and Resistance is marked in red. This Fund is currently a buy signal with all four indicators in a positive configuration. Please note that we are using a softer indicator for the price buy signal which is the 5 EMA passing up through the 200 EMA. Of course as in all our models we require all four of our indicators to agree before we allow the signal to change. Neutral is defined as 2-3 indicators in a negative configuration.
3
The F Fund: The F Fund bounced on the dovish FED minutes today. However, it still remains on a Neutral signal with three indicators (PMO, MAC D, WMs %R) giving a sell signal. Also, price needs to reenter the ascending channel before I will consider allocating any capitol to this Fund. Today’s bounce was more a function of fixed income investors jumping back into bonds than a sign that money is flowing out of stocks. As far as I’m concerned this bounce has no bearing on the equity market.
4
Things are looking good. God is blessing our group as both of our allocations out-performed the overall market today! Our job remains to monitor our charts for any signs of weakness. That’s all for tonight. It’s going to be the coldest night of the year so far here in western Kentucky (Down to -9 F) so I’m sure most of you are in the cold zone as well. Be careful and stay warm! See you tomorrow.
God bless,
Scott8-)


Written By

Scott Grimes

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