02/21/18

Good Evening, If you watched today’s market like I did then it probably drove you nuts. The market fluctuated but remained up marginally prior to the release of the last Fed meeting minutes, then spiked after the minutes were released only to reverse and sell off ending the day well in the red. Just when you thought you had figured out what kind of day you were having the market threw you a curve ball. It appears that the market liked the Fed meeting minutes deducing that the Fed was not overly concerned about inflation and would continue with rate hikes as planned or to put it simply there were no plans to increase the pace of rate hikes. Then treasury yields reacted to the the minutes by anticipating further rate hikes and  rising. That’s when the market sold off into the close.  OK, I know I always blame the machines but is really hard to place the blame on human traders that were already expected the hikes which have been well telegraphed by the Fed. By the matter of fact, expectations for a quarter-point hike at the Fed’s next meeting in March are currently 93.5 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data. So what’s changed? Everyone and I mean everyone is and has been expecting these rate hikes. That only explanation that I have is that the machines were programmed to sell on certain words in the Fed Statement. If I am correct and that was the only reason for the selling then we can expect a nice snap back rally in the next day or so and folks that sold will get squeezed hard. Either way, I’ll watch my charts and play the action that’s in front of me. The only problem I have is that sometimes it’s really hard to figure out why things are really happening…….but in the end that doesn’t really change a thing.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment reversed from a nice gain and gave up -0.55%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.67%, the Nasdaq -0.22%, and the S&P 500 -0.55%.

 

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +0.85% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.

 

02/20/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.595 17.7176 38.3087 48.6769 31.1181
$ Change 0.0047 -0.0144 -0.2231 -0.3401 -0.1520
% Change day +0.03% -0.08% -0.58% -0.69% -0.49%
% Change week +0.03% -0.08% -0.58% -0.69% -0.49%
% Change month +0.15% -1.07% -3.66% -2.82% -3.95%
% Change year +0.35% -2.19% +1.86% +0.43% +0.85%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.6368 27.0527 30.9979 33.7923 19.5962
$ Change -0.0189 -0.0505 -0.1071 -0.1400 -0.0931
% Change day -0.10% -0.19% -0.34% -0.41% -0.47%
% Change week -0.10% -0.19% -0.34% -0.41% -0.47%
% Change month -0.65% -1.21% -2.20% -2.63% -2.99%
% Change year +0.44% +0.60% +0.85% +0.94% +1.03%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:This one’s getting a little shaky.
F Fund:
There is little doubt that volatility has returned. As usual, we need to keep a close eye on our charts. That’s all for today. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




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