02/24/2015

Good Evening,

The four month Greek deal was approved and Janet Yellen completed her first day of testimony before congress (She addresses the Senate one day and the House one day every six months). The market seemed to get a small lift from the Greek deal (yeah Greece is saved again, tell the world). But there seemed be an unclear understanding of what Dr. Yellen had to say. Some people felt like it had a hawkish spin. I would disagree. She basically said what the FED minutes said and that is that the decision to raise interest rates will be data driven. She even went as far as to say that there would be no interest rate increase in the next few meetings. Sure can’t argue with that! Nevertheless, many of the market players want an assurance that rates won’t be rise until 2016. Get real, even if rates are raised they will still be at historic lows and if they are raised it will mean that the economy is on solid footing. What part of data dependent don’t these rocket scientists understand? You know what? When the rate increase comes, we’ll watch our charts and deal with the action in front of us. Until then, let’s ride the trend and make some money…..

 

 

The trading today left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gained +0.286% and AMP added its tenth straight gain with +0.343%. Before I go on, let me add a bit of trivia for you. I have been trading since the mid 90’s and AMP’s string of gains tied the longest string of consecutive gains that I have ever had in any portfolio that I have put together. If it’s God’s will, we will break that record tomorrow and I couldn’t be more happy for our many wonderful clients! Now let’s see how we compared to the market as a whole today… The Dow gained +0.51%, the Nasdaq +0.14%, the S&P +0.28%, AT&T was +0.59%, Alaska Air Group +0.45%, Facebook was off -0.49% and Apple succumbed to some profit taking at -0.62%. God blessed us again today! Give Him all the praise for He is worthy!

 

 

 

Dow, S&P finish at records after Yellen comments

 

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 30/C, 40/S, 30/I. Our allocation is now +2.63% on the year, not including the day’s gains. Here are the latest posted results:
02/23/15
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.6581 16.9409 27.925 37.8747 25.7955
$ Change 0.0019 0.0561 -0.0083 -0.0284 -0.0492
% Change day +0.01% +0.33% -0.03% -0.07% -0.19%
% Change week +0.01% +0.33% -0.03% -0.07% -0.19%
% Change month +0.10% -1.27% +5.97% +6.31% +5.25%
% Change year +0.28% +0.83% +2.80% +4.35% +6.51%
L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.6365 23.4253 25.5206 27.2413 15.5103
$ Change 0.0025 -0.0046 -0.0084 -0.0115 -0.0091
% Change day +0.01% -0.02% -0.03% -0.04% -0.06%
% Change week +0.01% -0.02% -0.03% -0.04% -0.06%
% Change month +1.15% +2.90% +3.74% +4.33% +4.93%
% Change year +1.06% +2.30% +2.88% +3.27% +3.69%
Let’s hit the charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com.
C Fund: No changes here. The C Fund continues to rise in its ascending channel to new all time highs!
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S Fund: Just as the C Fund, the S Fund continues to rise in its ascending channel to new highs.
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I Fund: The I Fund continues to rise within its well established ascending channel. The 50 EMA is closing in on the 100 EMA. This crossover would be very bullish. This chart is looking very strong and has the most room to run of any of our equity based funds.
3
F Fund: Now this one surprised me. The F Fund made a really nice gain for bonds today following through on the short term signal given by the Williams%R yesterday. Before you get too excited about this one, consider that the Wms%R is an ultra short indicator and this chart really needs some follow through from the MAC-D and PMO. That said, both of those indicators did turn up with today’s action. However, it will take some more upside for one or the other to generate a buy signal. Also, consider that it doesn’t make a lot of sense to invest in bonds as long as an interest rate increase is on the table and stocks are doing well. This chart is still neutral for a reason. I wouldn’t consider allocating any money here at this time. Today’s gain was more than likely a short lived reaction to Janet Yellen’s remarks. We will keep a real close eye on the Wms%R for any quick shift in this chart.
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It’s been a good week and a good month so far. Let’s see if we can keep it up tomorrow. That’s all for tonight! May God continue to bless your trades. Have a nice evening.
God bless,
Scott8-)


Written By

Scott Grimes

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