Good Evening,
The market has had the same recurring theme in the last three sessions. It rose early and closed weak. Weak closings are a warning sign of a market that could be topping. We will continue to embrace the pricing action but will do so with an increased level of caution. I’m not saying the market is going to move in either direction. I am just saying when you see these signs that you need be ready to react quickly should the character of the market suddenly shift. Rev Shark had a quote today that kind of embodies our investment philosophy (probably because I learned 90% of what I know about the market from him). This is why we do what we do:
“The best momentum players almost always stay bullish a bit too long but they will make enough money in the late stages to more than make up for the hits they take when the market turns. The key is to move quickly as the character of the market shifts. It isn’t to make that transition but it is protecting gains as the market finally shifts, that is where you gain significant out performance.”
In other words, this is where the game is won or lost. We make money as long as we can. Then we protect what we made. How well we do it determines how our performance stacks up against the rest of the traders. So on to today’s results:
Stocks end with small gains
The day’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral (but improving). We are currently invested at 28/C, 34/S, 38/I. Our allocation is -0.64% so far in 2014. Here are the latest posted results:
| 02/25/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.3398 | 16.0449 | 23.9135 | 34.5596 | 25.9211 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0467 | -0.0314 | 0.0009 | 0.0944 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.29% | -0.13% | +0.00% | +0.37% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.26% | +0.49% | +0.74% | +0.74% |
| % Change month | +0.16% | +0.34% | +3.74% | +4.64% | +5.66% |
| % Change year | +0.37% | +1.93% | +0.16% | +2.64% | +1.40% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.9138 | 21.9717 | 23.6787 | 25.0937 | 14.2199 |
| $ Change | 0.0041 | 0.0096 | 0.0120 | 0.0141 | 0.0092 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.04% | +0.05% | +0.06% | +0.06% |
| % Change week | +0.15% | +0.34% | +0.43% | +0.49% | +0.55% |
| % Change month | +1.01% | +2.42% | +3.04% | +3.47% | +3.93% |
| % Change year | +0.58% | +0.81% | +0.94% | +1.05% | +1.11% |
We’re still bumping off of resistance:
Carl Swenlin:
Overhead resistance is impeding upward progress, and the SPX moved sideways across the short-term rising trend line. This is kind of a default violation that doesn’t really send a clear message. While volume contracted from yesterday’s, I think yesterday’s volume stands out. It shows that a lot of people were sucked in during yesterday’s breakout, and they are probably regretting it.
Today the S Fund out performed:
The I Fund under performed:
And the C Fund was just there:
We’ll definitely have to keep our eye on the I fund if it keeps this up! (No pun intended). Janet Yellen is supposed to go before Congress tomorrow so we’ll pray that the market likes what she has to say. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
Scott
