03/05/19

Good Evening, We’ve talked many times in the past about how the market makes the news instead of the news making the market. The media folks always have multiple descriptions available to describe whatever the market is doing at the time. Don’t get me wrong, sometimes they are accurate but many times they are bull. Today they talked about the market being drug down by a bad report from General Electric. It’s been a while since GE has been relevant. Make no mistake, the current market is all about the Trade negotiations with China. Everything else is a side show. As I said in my last blog, the market continues to trade sideways with a slightly negative bias while it waits for this deal. In my humble opinion, that negative bias will continue to intensify the longer we go without a trade deal. The media also talked about (to a lesser extent) the fact that the S&P 500 is trading at the key psychological level of 2800. It has traded at that level for several days. So investors are watching to see when and if that level is breached before they pile on. While the media may have that one partially correct, most folks are not technical investors but fundamental investors and the fundamental investors are waiting for a China Trade deal before they will commit any additional money to this market. The market could be stalled at any level. The fact that it happens to be 2800 is inconsequential to the fundamental investor. That just happens to be where they are waiting for the trade deal with China. A good excuse to take some profits. Don’t get me wrong, it will be a good thing from a technical standpoint if we breach that level, but that is not what is driving this beast. It’s China plain and simple……

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped -0.33%. For comparison, the was off -0.05%, the Nasdaq -0.02%, the the S&P -0.11%. It was another rough day for small and mid caps.

 

Wall Street slips as GE swoons, key market level looms

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +6.74% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

03/04/19 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 16.0664 18.3226 40.2007 51.4525 29.2958
$ Change 0.0037 0.0343 -0.1560 -0.4399 0.0168
% Change day +0.02% +0.19% -0.39% -0.85% +0.06%
% Change week +0.02% +0.19% -0.39% -0.85% +0.06%
% Change month +0.03% -0.01% +0.31% -0.17% +0.32%
% Change year +0.46% +0.99% +11.82% +17.00% +9.67%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 20.2249 27.7894 31.7669 34.5649 20.0065
$ Change -0.0065 -0.0167 -0.0506 -0.0686 -0.0470
% Change day -0.03% -0.06% -0.16% -0.20% -0.23%
% Change week -0.03% -0.06% -0.16% -0.20% -0.23%
% Change month +0.07% +0.09% +0.15% +0.18% +0.19%
% Change year +2.72% +3.72% +7.19% +8.55% +9.75%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund: The S Fund generated an overall Neutral signal today when the PMO and MACD moved into negative configurations and the SCTR dropped below 40. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA  or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
I Fund: This one is approaching a buy signal.
F Fund:
All we can do at this stage is wait and watch. We’ll keep a close eye on the S Fund. Should we need to make a move we won’t  hesitate to adjust our allocation. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott Sunglasses
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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