Good Evening, I honestly didn’t think anything could take the spotlight off of China, but I was wrong. Today the European Central Bank said it would defer interest rate hikes and offered a new economic stimulus program. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said: “We are (in) a period of continued weakness and pervasive uncertainty” as he announced cuts to the bank’s growth and inflation forecasts. This news cast the spotlight once again on the growth of the world economy and left investors wondering just how long the United States can do all the heavy lifting before it feels the drag. As a result the major indices all suffered big setbacks today on heavy volume. It was their fourth consecutive day of losses.
The days action left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment dropped -0.79%. For comparison, The Dow fell -0.78%, the Nasdaq-1.13%, and the S&P 500 -0.81%. It was one of those days when their was nowhere to hide.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +4.74% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 03/06/19 |
|
|
|
Prior Prices |
| Fund |
G Fund |
F Fund |
C Fund |
S Fund |
I Fund |
| Price |
16.0688 |
18.35 |
39.8964 |
50.489 |
29.2467 |
| $ Change |
0.0012 |
0.0248 |
-0.2604 |
-0.7824 |
0.0072 |
| % Change day |
+0.01% |
+0.14% |
-0.65% |
-1.53% |
+0.02% |
| % Change week |
+0.04% |
+0.34% |
-1.14% |
-2.70% |
-0.11% |
| % Change month |
+0.04% |
+0.14% |
-0.45% |
-2.04% |
+0.15% |
| % Change year |
+0.48% |
+1.14% |
+10.97% |
+14.81% |
+9.48% |
| |
L INC |
L 2020 |
L 2030 |
L 2040 |
L 2050 |
| Price |
20.2001 |
27.7378 |
31.6362 |
34.3915 |
19.8897 |
| $ Change |
-0.0191 |
-0.0393 |
-0.0989 |
-0.1310 |
-0.0883 |
| % Change day |
-0.09% |
-0.14% |
-0.31% |
-0.38% |
-0.44% |
| % Change week |
-0.15% |
-0.25% |
-0.57% |
-0.70% |
-0.82% |
| % Change month |
-0.05% |
-0.10% |
-0.26% |
-0.33% |
-0.39% |
| % Change year |
+2.59% |
+3.52% |
+6.75% |
+8.01% |
+9.11% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund: The S Fund generated an overall Neutral signal when the PMO and Wms%R moved into negative configurations. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
I Fund:
F Fund:
A fourth consecutive day of selling today definitely put some stress on my charts. While I don’t have any sell signals I have a lot of indicators moving in that direction. Should I get a sell signal in either the S Fund or one of the key indicators that I monitor outside of thrift I will not hesitate to move to the sidelines until things clear up. Although it’s my inclination to sell now I have learned (many times the hard way) to listen to my indicators and not to try and anticipate where I think the market may go. Time after time including this past December the market has turned around on a dime and made a V shaped recovery. So with that in mind I will wait until my charts tell me to move…. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott 
***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at [email protected].
