Good Morning, Either I am more aware of things than I used to be or the markets these days are just more stressful. I honestly think its the latter. This market is an every other day affair right now. Eventually the current state of affairs will settle down, but for now this is it! So….I guess we have to deal with it. I am reminded of scripture that states in Matthew 6:27 “And which of you being anxious can add one cubit unto the measure of his life?” We just have to trust that God will take care of His children….

So today we’re having a good day. Perhaps we will gain a little extra and put in a higher high. We will see. There are two things driving the market this week. Oil and Nvidia. The conflict in the middle east has driven the price of oil higher which is not surprise to anyone. 100 dollars a barrel seems to be the psychological barrier at which the market buys and sells. If not, then at least that’s where the computer algorithms are programed to buy and sell. It’s certainly been a minute since we’ve talked about those but they are certainly alive and well and at working in this market. When the price of oil exceeds 100 dollars a barrel the market will sell off. When oil dips below 100 dollars a barrel then it rallies. You can bank on it! “The conflict in the Middle East and related headlines are still the major source of fluctuations in markets,” said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “The duration of the closure in the Strait of Hormuz is the key factor and markets will be watching for progress.” Traffic in the key Strait of Hormuz passageway – through which about 20% of the world’s petroleum consumption passed before the war – has effectively come to a halt in the wake of the war breaking out. This might only continue, as Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has said that it should remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.”  Complicating matters further, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC on Thursday that the U.S. Navy is “not ready” to escort tankers through the Strait. Wright did say, however, that the Navy will likely be able to escort them by the end of the month. All that noted, it is interesting to see that the US is allowing Iranian, Chinese and Indian tankers to pass through the straight of Hormuz. Chris Wright said that the US was allowing this passage as the world needed to stay well supplied. My outlook on all this is that the show must go on. China and India will be supplied with the oil they need. So unless oil spikes to 150 dollars per barrel, I am taking the stance that as difficult as this situation is, that the high price of oil is transitory and that eventually oil will return to the 70 dollar a barrel range and when it does the market will rally from there. It’s hard to say when that will be. So we just have to try to stay in the market to ensure that we get our part of that fast and furious rally!!

Secondly, we have Nvidia which is throwing it’s weight around this week and if money equates to weight then they have a lot of it to throw around. So I guess it’s Nvidia to the rescue….. Even if the Iran war persists through next week, potentially sending oil prices higher and weighing on investor sentiment by extension, Nvidia may offer some support to the broader market. The artificial intelligence company’s GTC conference is set to take place next week from March 16 to 19, and a number of Wall Street analysts are reiterating their bullish stances on the chipmaker in the leadup to the event. Rothschild & Co. Redburn analyst Timm Schulze-Melander – who has a buy rating on the name – said that unless oil prices reach $150 a barrel and “sucks the air out of the room,” Nvidia will be at the forefront of investors’ minds next week. “Nvidia is moving aggressively to dominate AI inference. OpenClaw and Nvidia’s NemoClaw mark the first major step into consumer-scale agentic AI,” he wrote in a recent note. “At next week’s GTC keynote, we expect Nvidia to reveal more of its strategy for dominance of AI inference. While the market obsesses over chips, the real story is Nvidia’s ‘five-layer stack’ designed to squeeze hyperscaler margins and lock-in the generation of agentic AI.” The conference comes at a crucial time for the AI industry. As major tech companies ramp up their spending for their AI build-out plans, uncertainty about return on investment remains a cloud that has hung over the market in recent months. Meanwhile, concerns about the technology disrupting various industries such as software and trucking have hit other areas of the market.  While AI seems to be in a way a two edged sword, I think it is creating more value than it is taking and will remain “The Trade” for the foreseeable future.

For now as we discussed last week we will remain invested at 100/I. Some of our indicators continue to indicate a bottom to the latest bout of selling. So we are staying invested in equities to be positioned for the aforementioned rally when it comes. Those who remain out of the market at this time will risk being left behind when this occurs. You need to keep in mind that it will only take one piece of favorable news from the middle east to trigger the buying. Also, be aware that we are monitoring current support levels on our charts and will not hesitate to move to safety should they give way. I do not think that will happen, but as I have often stated in the past, we don’t make investment decisions based on what we think. We base them on the charts.

Here’s what the rest of the week is looking like:

March 16-19: Nvidia GTC

Monday, March 16

8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (March)

9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (February)

9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (February)

10:00 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (March)

Earnings: Dollar Tree

Tuesday, March 17

10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales (February)

Wednesday, March 18

8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (PPI) (February)

10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (January)

10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (January)

2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting with Economic Projections

2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound

Earnings: Micron Technology, Jabil, General Mills

Thursday, March 19

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (03/14)

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (March)

10:00 a.m. New Home Sales (January)

10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories (January)

Earnings: FedEx, Darden Restaurants

The days trading so far has left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment is gaining close to +1.70%. For comparison, the Dow is also trading higher at +1.00%, the Nasdaq is +1,32%, and the S&P 500 is 1.15%. Praise God for a day in the green!

Dow bounces 500 points to start the week as oil prices fall back to $95 a barrel: Live updates

Last weeks rollercoaster left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/I. Once again, we are staying invested because one of our proprietary indicators is telling us that there is a high probability that a bottom is in. Our allocation is now -9.09% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted returns.

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.