Good Evening, Whew, what a roller coaster ride. I’m sure the market has had swings like this before but I just can’t remember when. After having one of the best days in 2019 yesterday we had one of the worst today! The market sold off on further concerns of a world economic slowdown. Also, further impacting the today’s selloff was the fact that the bond yield curve inverted. What is that you say? That is when the price of short term bonds (I think 2 year bonds but don’t hold me to it) becomes higher than the price of long term bonds represented by the 10 year treasury bond price. Why is that bad? The first reason is that it squeezes the profit margin of banks when the price they pay for short term money is greater than what they charge for long term loans. The second reason and I might add the reason that the market sold of today is that they say an inverted yield curve has proceeded every recession. While that is true they aren’t telling you the rest of the story. In fact an inverted yield curve has proceeded every recession but there have also been many times that the yield curve has inverted that there has been no recession. In short, an inverted yield curve does not guarantee that their will be a recession. At best it is a reason to possibly raise your caution level. The way I see it, our charts will have us out of the market a long time before a recession kicks in….That’s the reason we watch them on a daily basis!!!
The days blood bath left us with the following results: Praise God our TSP allotment added +0.50% today! Now, if only the market will bounce after this sell off on Monday….. I wouldn’t sweat if you missed the interfund transfer deadline. As I was telling someone today. It could be a blessing in disguise if the market continues to sell off on Monday. My guess is that it will bounce but as they say this it not a risk free business. Nothing ventured nothing gained….. Anyway, for comparison, the Dow fell -1.77%, the Nasdaq -2.50%, and the S&P 500 -1.90%. I will praise God again for his guidance today and pray that things will go well when we enter the C Fund on Monday. The market should be primed for a bounce. We will see…..
Wall Street tumbles on global economic slowdown fears
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Buy. As of the close today we are invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +6.19% on the year not including the days gains. Here are the latest posted results.
| 03/21/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.087 | 18.5326 | 41.1396 | 51.6121 | 29.6904 |
| $ Change | 0.0012 | 0.0124 | 0.4463 | 0.7085 | 0.0606 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.07% | +1.10% | +1.39% | +0.20% |
| % Change week | +0.05% | +0.42% | +1.17% | +0.84% | +0.56% |
| % Change month | +0.16% | +1.14% | +2.65% | +0.14% | +1.67% |
| % Change year | +0.59% | +2.15% | +14.43% | +17.36% | +11.15% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.3301 | 27.9737 | 32.1324 | 35.0233 | 20.2993 |
| $ Change | 0.0360 | 0.0697 | 0.1610 | 0.2091 | 0.1381 |
| % Change day | +0.18% | +0.25% | +0.50% | +0.60% | +0.68% |
| % Change week | +0.25% | +0.32% | +0.59% | +0.69% | +0.77% |
| % Change month | +0.59% | +0.75% | +1.31% | +1.51% | +1.66% |
| % Change year | +3.25% | +4.40% | +8.42% | +9.99% | +11.35% |
