Good Morning, PAIN  This market is clearly defined by pain. There is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow that seems to remain just our of reach. Everyone knows that the market will rally when the conflict in Iran is resolved given that the straight of Hormuz is open for business. That is to say the least, a no brainer, but here’s the fly in the pie. How long will it be before this takes place? There is little doubt that whoever is left to negotiate in Iran is not exactly negotiating from a position of strength. Any reasonable government would be expected to give in to the demands of the US, but when have the Iranians ever been reasonable? After all a quick study of their doctrine will tell you that at the very least the recently departed leaders were all into this end of the world Armageddon type stuff. They were clearly willing to die for their doctrine although I’m not sure they believed it would happen now, but it did and their gone. So who are we actually negotiating with? Todays news described them as more reasonable. Yeah, that’s nice, but just the same I won’t be holding my breath until there is a formal resolution to this conflict.  So the bottom line is this. How much pain can we take while we wait for the post war rally? Each day we think this thing will be over and we can move on. Just another day and another and another……. Now we find ourselves down over 10%. Just a little more selling and the S&P 500 will officially be in a correction which is defined a a dip of 10% or greater off the markets high. This is the every definition of “if you don’t want to get deeper then stop digging the hole!” But that pot of gold is just beyond our reach and just as sure as we do sell the market will leave us in a situation from which we cannot recover. This is why so many folks are resigned to the by and hold philosophy. It’s just so much easier to set it and forget it. It takes a unique set of circumstances to get me in this situation but here I am! So where to go from here????? How much pain can we take???? Do we sell now and short the market when we are already down 10% plus? So what do the charts say?? The traditional charts tell us the the 5EMA has not passed through the 200EMA on the way down with all the other indicators in a negative configurations. It passed through the 50 EMA around March 8th which is when I most certainly would have sold under the old system. Next up will be the 20EMA passing through the 200EMA. That will take maybe another week of selling and then………then you would be waiting for the 50EMA to pass through the 200EMA and that folks is the big one. It is known to investors as the devils cross and commonly accompanies a BEAR market. It is a key psychological level which in and of itself would have a most negative effect on the market. The non traditional charts which are the ones I am using and utilize our proprietary indicators show that the market is bottoming and that this is an excellent opportunity for a long entry. In a normal market with no existential inputs such as this war, that would most definitely be the way to go. However, we must consider what would happen if this war drags on. In this case we are forced to consider the fundamental inputs and factor them into our decision whether we want to or not.   So the key question in all this is do we think this war will end in the next month or do these less than stable Iranians have the ability to drag it on and if they don’t what will be the impact on stocks if the US escalates the war in an attempt to force it’s end? That is the six million dollar question. If y0u can tell me what the war will do then I can tell you what stocks will do. Other than that there are risks associated with any decision you make whether it is to stay in the market to move to safety. This decision is n0t the same f0r all. If you have a short time frame and will be retiring in the next six months or so I would recommend that you move to the G until this is over. If that is not the case then you might consider waiting this out. The question then becomes how much pain are you willing to take? This could be over in a week and it may not be over this year. Only God knows the real answer to that question! It all comes down to if we think this war will be over quickly or not. Make no mistake if you stay in this market you are making a clear bet that this will all be over within a month, because if it is not you will be in for much more pain before it is finished. There is no clear answer to this question. Each must do what is best in their situation. Whatever you decide may cost you performance or possibly even more than that. OR……you may just get your hands on that pot of gold. I guess it all comes down to this. I’ve got to make a decision. I don’t want to but I’ve got to. If there’s anything that will make me retire this is it…. I’m sticking at 100/I now. The Iranians have to break. They must break and we will break them. Folks keep praying. All any of us want is a peaceful and prosperous world. They need to lay down and let it happen!!

Here’s the calendar for the week:

All times ET.

Monday, March 30

Tuesday, March 31

9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (January)

9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (March)

10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (March)

10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (February)

Earnings: Nike, McCormick & Co.

Wednesday, April 1

8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (March)

8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (February)

9:45 a.m. S&P Global PMI Manufacturing final (March)

10:00 a.m. Business Inventories (January)

10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (March)

Earnings: Conagra Brands

Thursday, April 2

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (03/28)

Friday, April 3

Markets are closed for Good Friday

8:30 a.m. March Jobs Report

9:45 a.m. S&P Global PMI Services final (March)

10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (March)

The days trading so far has produced the following results: Our TSP allotment is up modestly at +0.45%. For comparison, the Dow is trading higher at +0.78%, the Nasdaq is -0.01%, and the S&P 500 is +0.33%. I’ll take it. Praise God for anything that’s not a selloff!

Dow rises 300 points after Trump says U.S. in ‘serious’ talks to end operation in Iran: Live updates

Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Hold. We are currently invested a 100/I. Our allocation is now -11.46% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

More Prices & Returns

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.