Good Evening, The markets struggled again today as investors waited for tomorrows all important jobs report. The Fed will be watching the report and given anything other than tremendously bad numbers will likely follow through with a March interest rate increase. The report has the potential to be a catalyst one way or the other. It’s just a little unclear which direction that will be. That’s the noise and if the uncertainty of it all doesn’t drive you to the charts nothing else will….. Speaking of the charts, the one’s for the major indexes (the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq) are still in uptrends. However, those uptrends are under a little pressure. Selling after a nice run like we have had is not necessarily a bad thing. At this point it probably should considered no more than consolidation, but we must always be wary of the fact that extended downtrends start the same way. That is to say with a little selling. So at this point I will call it consolidation and at the same time will add that most of the charts that I am looking at feel a bit toppy. I’m not ready to pronounce it as such just yet, but the indicators that I am looking at are pointing toward a possible correction (A correction is a move down of 10% or more and a bear market is a move down of 20 % or more). That said, given the fact that the market has left so many defensive minded investors in the dust over the past few years, I would feel hard pressed to declare a correction until I was pretty deep into one. Nonetheless, it is always best to be aware of the possibilities. We should have a better idea where we might be heading tomorrow. For now as always we should keep a close eye on the charts.
Todays trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment lost more ground at -0.34%. For comparison, the Dow was flat at +0.01%, the Nasdaq +0.02% and the S&P 500 +0.08%.
Wall Street ends up slightly; energy shares rebound
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested with 100% in the S Fund. Our TSP allotment is now +3.33% for the year. That does not include today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 03/08/17 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.2533 | 17.4358 | 32.7217 | 42.3596 | 25.6001 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | -0.0447 | -0.0650 | -0.2172 | -0.0941 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.26% | -0.20% | -0.51% | -0.37% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | -0.35% | -0.81% | -1.72% | -0.62% |
| % Change month | +0.05% | -1.00% | +0.04% | -1.27% | -0.30% |
| % Change year | +0.44% | -0.07% | +5.99% | +3.33% | +4.06% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 18.6526 | 25.0346 | 27.7083 | 29.7396 | 17.0065 |
| $ Change | -0.0128 | -0.0333 | -0.0555 | -0.0699 | -0.0450 |
| % Change day | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.20% | -0.23% | -0.26% |
| % Change week | -0.17% | -0.37% | -0.57% | -0.68% | -0.77% |
| % Change month | -0.07% | -0.14% | -0.21% | -0.26% | -0.28% |
| % Change year | +1.32% | +2.28% | +3.25% | +3.73% | +4.17% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: I’ll admit that the C Fund is the class of the pack right now. That is reflected by a great SCTR of 87.8%. 
S Fund: Small caps are taking a beating and the S Fund has a lot of them. That can turn around in a hurry though. If market conditions improve, small caps can have the best gains. Of slight concern at this point is the fact that price has broken the lower trend line. As I mentioned yesterday, I won’t be too concerned as long as support at 98.25 holds.
I Fund: Price is having trouble with resistance at 60.75.
F Fund: Bond prices continue to breakdown as interest rates rise. They haven’t seen the bottom yet. On the bright side, that money has to go somewhere and that somewhere is usually stocks…
I’m keeping a close watch on the S Fund. While conditions don’t require a move at this time, that could change if prices continue to drop. There are only two places that you can move to at this time. The C Fund and the G Fund. If the market continues to trend down that would leave only one. The G Fund. As usual, we’ll put out an alert for any move we make here. If you don’t already have it be sure to add our phone app so you can receive the alert wherever you are. I only mention this because we have a lot of new folks and we haven’t needed to change our allocation for a while. Of course you can also choose receive an alert via E Mail and you can check this site 24 hours a day as we always post our current allocation. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
