03/10/14

Good Evening,

We had our second off day in a row as traders decided to focus on international economic issues today. Many people are asking me if I think the market is topping. Most of you know that I start by saying I’m not in the business of speculation. I am a reactive trader that uses technical analysis to make decisions on the action that is before me.  However, I will say that topping is a process. Markets don’t just fall apart in one day. Yes I know about the flash crash and 911, but as a general rule they don’t. For us it’s plain and simple, we stick with the trend and build up a pad of gains to protect us when the inevitable downturn comes. If we stay disciplined and watch our charts we will know when that time comes and move our money into defensive funds as we have done so many times before…

 

Markets hit pause as investors watch Asia

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 28/C, 34/S, 38/I. Our allocation is +0.39% on the year. Here are the latest posted results: 

03/07/14  
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.3486 15.9926 24.3614 35.2319 25.819
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0392 0.0151 -0.0323 -0.1686
% Change day +0.01% -0.24% +0.06% -0.09% -0.65%
% Change week +0.04% -0.60% +1.05% +1.18% -0.32%
% Change month +0.04% -0.60% +1.05% +1.18% -0.32%
% Change year +0.43% +1.59% +2.04% +4.64% +1.00%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.9625 22.1102 23.8689 25.3273 14.3655
$ Change -0.0065 -0.0237 -0.0321 -0.0389 -0.0257
% Change day -0.04% -0.11% -0.13% -0.15% -0.18%
% Change week +0.14% +0.32% +0.41% +0.48% +0.53%
% Change month +0.14% +0.32% +0.41% +0.48% +0.53%
% Change year +0.87% +1.44% +1.75% +1.99% +2.15%

Here’s today’s chart for the C-Fund:
The rising wedge remains the most dominant short-term feature on the chart. Note that volume contracted quite a bit.

Here’s a bonus today for you more advanced chart readers. My personal chart…
0310
Not to worry you, but that rising wedge formation usually resolves downward so be prepared if it does. Watch the charts closely to ensure that you don’t get out of equities until you have to. Remember the FED is still pumping money into the system, so a V-shaped bounce would be likely and when that occurs, it’s best not to jump out too quickly. We must also be aware of the fact that as the FED money is reduced, the event of a V-Shaped bounce is also less likely. If that becomes the case, it will be best to move to defensive Funds as soon as possible. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades. If put Him first He will never let you down! Have a nice evening.
God bless,
Scott 8-)

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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