03/12/14

Good Evening,

Well the thrift funds were kind of flat today, but things were different. Two things to be precise. #1 The action in underlying stocks was better. A lot of the leaders such as TSLA and SCTY made nice reversals and closed well. #2 Instead of closing poorly the major indices closed strongly, most at their highs for the day. #3 Did I say there was a #3? Guess not, but I’m adding one anyway. The Nasdaq was in the green all day. Why is this important? The Nasdaq in most cases is an early indicator of the overall direction that the market will take. Its strong close bodes well for the short term trend. #4 Guess I’ll add a #4 as well….The quick reversal fits the pattern of what has happened for the past three years which also bodes well for the short term. I’m not sure if it’s all the cheap FED money or computer trading that has caused this phenomena. I would still like to think that things will return to pre-2009 normal, but I’m beginning to think that this could be the new norm. We really won’t know for sure until the FED money dries up. Either way, I’ve got a set of indicators that will work in a market that is trading in both manners, so I’ll just keep reading my charts. If the market does return to pre-2009 form, I’ll be ready. But I’ll bet that in that instance a lot of people will be lost. It appears that they have become so accustomed to trading in this manner that they won’t be able to adapt to the change. After all, what they are doing now is easy– buy it and hold it.  The good traders are the ones who will adapt, improvise and overcome…

 

Wall Street shrugs as global markets sink

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. Our new allocation as of the close of business today will be 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. It is currently -0.37% for the year. Here are the latest posted results: 
03/11/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.3522 16.0106 24.2289 34.8044 25.6916
$ Change 0.0009 0.0102 -0.1228 -0.2919 0.0167
% Change day +0.01% +0.06% -0.50% -0.83% +0.07%
% Change week +0.03% +0.11% -0.54% -1.21% -0.49%
% Change month +0.07% -0.49% +0.50% -0.05% -0.82%
% Change year +0.46% +1.71% +1.48% +3.37% +0.50%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.9454 22.0404 23.7685 25.2007 14.2838
$ Change -0.0125 -0.0433 -0.0620 -0.0782 -0.0494
% Change day -0.07% -0.20% -0.26% -0.31% -0.34%
% Change week -0.10% -0.32% -0.42% -0.50% -0.57%
% Change month +0.04% +0.00% -0.01% -0.02% -0.04%
% Change year +0.77% +1.12% +1.32% +1.48% +1.57%
The I Fund has been slacking some lately so I’ve reallocated some of its funds elsewhere.
Here’s today’s S&P chart:
Today’s rebound kept the price within the wedge, but the other factors that I mentioned earlier in this post make me believe that this may be one of those rare cases when the pattern breaks up instead of down. We’ll know in a few days if my analysis is correct. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades. Have a nice evening!  
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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