03/17/2015

Good Evening,

Yes, it sure feels like this month is going by fast. However, it felt like this day went by slow as everything was pretty much on hold pending the out come of tomorrow’s FED meeting. Will they increase rates? Will they leave the phrase ‘patient’ in the wording of their statement?  Whatever… I’m just watching the charts!

The day’s action (or should I say lack of action) left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped back -0.1176%, however, AMP remained dialed in with another gain of +0.1291%. For comparison the Dow lost -0.71%, the Nasdaq was +0.16%, the S&P dropped -0.33%. Alaska Air Group was +1.82%, Facebook +1.66%, and Apple +1.67%. I praise God for His guidance with both our allocations!

Dow, S&P 500 fall on Fed nervousness; Nasdaq inches up

 

 

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 30/C, 34/S, 36/I. Our allocation is now +1.55% on the year not including the day’s results. Here are the latest posted results: 

03/16/15
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.6732 16.9284 27.5879 37.8947 25.2853
$ Change 0.0023 0.0072 0.3688 0.3181 0.2328
% Change day +0.02% +0.04% +1.35% +0.85% +0.93%
% Change week +0.02% +0.04% +1.35% +0.85% +0.93%
% Change month +0.08% -0.44% -1.00% +0.30% -2.64%
% Change year +0.39% +0.75% +1.55% +4.40% +4.41%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.6068 23.2889 25.3276 27.0084 15.3568
$ Change 0.0435 0.1364 0.1884 0.2289 0.1463
% Change day +0.25% +0.59% +0.75% +0.85% +0.96%
% Change week +0.25% +0.59% +0.75% +0.85% +0.96%
% Change month -0.21% -0.64% -0.81% -0.91% -1.05%
% Change year +0.89% +1.70% +2.10% +2.39% +2.66%
 
 
On to the charts:
 
C Fund:  Price dropped slightly today, but not enough to change this chart one way or the other. The MAC D and the PMO are still negative giving the chart a neutral signal. All signals are marked in green.
 1

S Fund: Small Caps did well today as evidenced by the small gain that the S Fund managed on an otherwise off day. This chart remains neutral but continues to improve. All signals are marked in green.

 
2

I Fund: The I Fund marched in step with other equities today posting a small loss. This proves that even in foreign markets it’s all about the FED!  This chart remains unchanged with an overall neutral signal. All signals are marked in green.

3

F Fund: Price was mostly unchanged in the F Fund. It is waiting for the FED like everything else. You can expect this fund to tank if even the thought of interest rate hike comes up. For now it remains at an overall neutral signal with the PMO still under its EMA. 

4

I’m watching the charts and waiting on the FED. Irregardless of what is released in tomorrow afternoon’s statement, it will be hard to say what the market’s reaction will be. Just watch your charts starting at 2:00 PM EST tomorrow and you’ll see the fireworks. I have little doubt that there will be a big move one way or the other. I thank God for His continued guidance of this group! May He continue to bless your trades. The NCAA Basketball Tournament starts tonight! How many of you picked Kentucky to go all the way??? Go Cats!! Have a great evening!
God bless,
Scott


Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 05/12/25

    Good Morning, Our charts told us we were at the bottom and the fundamentals agreed. The opportunity was so compelling that we probably jumped back in a few weeks to early, but we wanted to make darn sure we were positioned for the run that would surely come. The market dipped and many chicken little…

  • 05/05/25

    Good Morning, Inevitably, we will have a down day and today is it. Believe it or not the S&P 500 has gone up the past nine sessions and it’s been a long time since it’s done that. So a down day today is not so bad. The recent run has pretty much put things back…

  • 04/29/2025

    Good Afternoon, This was a Fed Driven market. It was all about when the Fed would be reducing interest rates based on inflation and that’s still the case to a certain degree, but in all actuality everything is waiting on the outcome of the tariff situation. So given that fact I’m going to say that…