03/22/18

Good Evening, I thought the worst two words for the market were rate and increase. However, after experiencing today’s sell off I have decided that the worst two words are new and tariff….. As you probably already know by now President Trump signed an executive order targeting around 50 Billion Dollars worth of Chinese imports. There are in addition to the tariffs that were already imposed on steel and aluminum. My understanding is that the ultimate goal of these tariffs is to stop China from getting there hands on our technology. I have not studied that particular issue enough to opine further. Without getting political I will say this. China has been buying up our technology at a rapid rate and has not been playing fair in the trading arena. Most of this has been to the disadvantage of the United States. This much I know. How these tariffs fit in I cannot say…. At any rate they popped us pretty good today. I thank God that we moved our allocation to small and mid caps which will fare much better than big cap corporations that do business internationally. If you wonder what I am talking about then look no further than Boeing and Caterpillar. Today the stock price of Boeing (BA) fell -5.2% and (CAT) fell -5.7%. The Dow which is made up of 30 such stocks was off a whopping 2.93%. We were definitely in a better place than that in the S Fund. Speaking of our allocation…….. The days action left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment dropped -2.28%. Not Good but better than the Dow which lost -2.93%, the Nasdaq -2.43%, and the S&P 500 at -2.52%. When the market recovers from this issue we are in the best place to recover with it provided we don’t get a sell signal are able to stay invested. My best guess is that the selling is not over. However, there will be a great buying opportunity when it  does come to an end.

 

Stocks tumble to worst day in six weeks after Trump tariff action

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now -0.12% on the year. Here are the latest posted results:

 

03/22/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.6313 17.7586 37.3505 48.8135 30.1653
$ Change 0.0013 0.0592 -0.9636 -1.1422 -0.4388
% Change day +0.01% +0.33% -2.52% -2.29% -1.43%
% Change week +0.05% +0.03% -3.92% -2.76% -2.32%
% Change month +0.17% +0.13% -2.47% +1.30% -1.92%
% Change year +0.58% -1.97% -0.69% +0.72% -2.24%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.5868 26.8852 30.6081 33.2782 19.2534
$ Change -0.0798 -0.1973 -0.4016 -0.5193 -0.3436
% Change day -0.41% -0.73% -1.30% -1.54% -1.75%
% Change week -0.62% -1.12% -1.99% -2.35% -2.67%
% Change month -0.21% -0.49% -0.97% -1.17% -1.33%
% Change year +0.19% -0.02% -0.42% -0.60% -0.74%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: This one can’t take a lot more heavy selling without generating a sell signal.
S Fund: The S Fund generated an overall Neutral signal when the PMO, MACD, and Wms %R all moved into negative configurations.
I Fund: The I Fund generated an overall Sell signal when the PMO, MACD, and Wms %R moved into negative configurations with the SCTR below 40. Also please note that the 5 EMA is already below the 50 EMA  putting in a negative configuration as well. This one is definitely feeling the pressure.
F Fund: Bonds perked up a little bit as traders moved to safe havens.
Technically speaking the S Fund is still in good shape for now. We will see how much more selling it can endure before it breaks down. Keep praying! For now it’s just another selloff. At the beginning of the year I said that 2018 would be more volatile. But I must admit, so far it has surpassed my expectations….. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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