Good Evening,
Our TSP funds came in mixed today as the talking heads announced that confidence is back at Wall Street. That was evident as money flowed into some select large cap stocks as well as several speculative names. Junk speculative stocks in the alternative fuels sector were once again red hot with names like PLUG, FCEL and BLDP leading the way.
When you chart all this action it becomes evident that seasoned traders are focusing on speculative stocks because that is one of the only areas where they can turn a profit in the current market. The big hedge funds are turning to the “oldie but goodies” such as GE and IBM. They are actually doing this for the same reasons. The large hedge fund managers feel that the market is topping and are positioning themselves in stocks that will hold up better in a downturn. They are doing this because they have to stay invested all the time. The smaller traders are chasing the speculative names as they are the only thing left that will still make money for them. They aren’t concerned about a downturn. When a dip comes they will sell and hold cash, but the folks invested in the major hedge funds expect to see their money invested in something all the time. Thus, the goal is the same for both. To make money. They only approach it in different ways. I said all that to make the point that the majority of the mid range stocks aren’t making significant gains. They are like hamsters on a tread mill. Running, but not really going anywhere. If you put all these things together, it signals a market that may be topping. Am I calling a top? No, I am saying that this is part of a topping process that may go on for weeks or months. As I said yesterday, I expect that this process will end when the FED money is reduced to the point that it can no longer artificially support the market. Of course both on the street and in TSP I will keep capital invested in the funds that have good charts. Sometimes those funds will be equity based and sometimes not. Don’t be fooled though, everyone is frustrated right now with the current yo-yo effect of the this market. And you know what? Nothing is going to change until we get a real correction. Then the same people that are saying that confidence has returned to Wall Street will be proclaiming that the sky is falling. That is the reason you stick with your charts and take only a passing interest in the news. Trading with emotion will kill you…..on to today’s results…
Optimism is back on Wall Street
| 03/24/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.3637 | 16.034 | 24.1085 | 34.5135 | 24.9784 |
| $ Change | 0.0027 | 0.0110 | -0.1175 | -0.4025 | -0.0839 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.07% | -0.49% | -1.15% | -0.33% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.07% | -0.49% | -1.15% | -0.33% |
| % Change month | +0.15% | -0.35% | +0.00% | -0.88% | -3.57% |
| % Change year | +0.54% | +1.86% | +0.98% | +2.50% | -2.29% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.9194 | 21.9085 | 23.5835 | 24.9736 | 14.1327 |
| $ Change | -0.0155 | -0.0603 | -0.0868 | -0.1098 | -0.0704 |
| % Change day | -0.09% | -0.27% | -0.37% | -0.44% | -0.50% |
| % Change week | -0.09% | -0.27% | -0.37% | -0.44% | -0.50% |
| % Change month | -0.11% | -0.60% | -0.79% | -0.92% | -1.10% |
| % Change year | +0.61% | +0.52% | +0.53% | +0.56% | +0.49% |
