Good Evening,
Things were messed up again today. Stocks took a dip and never managed to make it back into the green before closing. The dollar was up, oil was up, and precious metals took a hit across the board. Lets see if we can make some sense of this strange action…
Stocks dragged down by Citi and other banks
Today’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation if -2.03% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 03/26/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.3654 | 16.0722 | 24.0482 | 33.9893 | 25.401 |
| $ Change | 0.0008 | 0.0330 | -0.1692 | -0.5139 | 0.2103 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.21% | -0.70% | -1.49% | +0.83% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.31% | -0.73% | -2.65% | +1.35% |
| % Change month | +0.16% | -0.11% | -0.25% | -2.39% | -1.94% |
| % Change year | +0.55% | +2.10% | +0.72% | +0.95% | -0.64% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.9249 | 21.926 | 23.5987 | 24.9825 | 14.1408 |
| $ Change | -0.0118 | -0.0397 | -0.0603 | -0.0801 | -0.0494 |
| % Change day | -0.07% | -0.18% | -0.25% | -0.32% | -0.35% |
| % Change week | -0.06% | -0.19% | -0.30% | -0.40% | -0.44% |
| % Change month | -0.08% | -0.52% | -0.73% | -0.89% | -1.04% |
| % Change year | +0.64% | +0.60% | +0.60% | +0.60% | +0.55% |
The I Fund was the winner today at +0.51%. The F fund squeaked by at +0.07% and both C and S funds were in the negative. The S fund remains our weakest chart at the moment.
The S Fund traded below its 50 EMA on average volume for the second straight day. Barring an early recovery my downside target is around 81. However, as I mentioned yesterday, that is far from a given with the FED’s bond buying program still in place to the tune of 50 billion per month.
Some of the strange action such as that weakness in precious metals and strength in oil can be attributed to a stronger dollar. However, I wouldn’t bet on that play just yet if I were you, as the dollar’s chart is far from a done deal. Here’s what Carl Swenlin had to say in yesterday’s blog:
DOLLAR: As of 2/13/2014 the US Dollar Index ETF (UUP) is on a Trend Model SELL signal. The LT Trend Model, which informs our long-term outlook, is on a SELL signal as of 8/13/2013, so our long-term posture is bearish.It looks like there is a flag forming on the flag pole of last week’s breakout. Not the best example of a flag, but it is close enough to make me think that UUP is going higher.
It’s possible that the dollar could continue to improve. That would change the complexion of market. Especially in commodities like Oil that are valued by the dollar. There are other area’s that a increasing dollar can effect as well so we’ll keep a close eye on this one in the coming days. There are times when it can be a game changer. For now we’ll stay invested in equities until we get a solid sell signal in an effort to avoid getting squeezed. Have a great evening!
God bless,
Scott
