Good Evening, Lets get right to the point. The emphasis this week is on earnings. Investors will be looking at corporate earnings reports and guidance for two things. First, they will be looking at the numbers to see how they will influence the Fed with regard to further rate increases. Second and equal to that they will be watching to see how healthy the corporations are. They want to know how the companies are holding up in a slowing economy with rising interest rates. They want to see if the reports and/or guidance will give them any insight into whether or not there will be a recession in the US and if so will it be mild or deep. You see, there is a sizeable contingent of investors out there that believe the Fed has already gone to far with their policy of rate increases. They contend that the Fed did not wait long enough to see if their initial increases were effective before enacting new ones. They feel that the Fed has already gone too far. As we have noted in several recent blogs, there are many economists out there that support this train of thought by pointing to the yield curve inversion that has been in place for months now. Personally, I would have to agree with them in that there is a great chance that there will be a recession. I honestly can’t remember when the yield curve inverted and there wasn’t a recession. Also supporting that theory is the fact that in the past when the Fed has increased rates to control inflation it has almost always ended in a recession. All that said, it appears that the economy is holding up exceptionably well as the Fed increases rates. My opinion, for what it is worth, is that there will likely be a mild recession rather than a deep one. We will see. One thing is for sure, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) as well as the Core Price Index (which strips out food and energy costs) issued last week all indicated that the rate of inflation is slowing. Given those reports, the opinion of investors is evenly split between those that think there will be a +0.25% increase and those that say there will be no increase when the Fed meets in May. One thing most investors do agree on is that the Fed will pause or end their rate increase campaign after that meeting. I am in that camp and when the pause finally occurs I think that will initiate a long recovery process from the pandemic bear market. Of course that depends on nothing else going drastically wrong which is the reason we watch our charts. As usual they and not the news will determine what investment decisions we make. In all honesty, I hardly even looked at the news when I was still working for the government. I didn’t have time. I looked at my charts and made my investments accordingly….. Now there’s some food for thought. Do we actually need to waste our time with news?  So why then write about fundamentals?? Because folks want to see why they are seeing what they are seeing on their charts. That and pure technical analysis bores them to tears. I guess there’s just not a lot of people that enjoy statistics……..


The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a gain of +0.36%. For comparison, the Dow added added +0.30%, the Nasdaq +0.28%, and the S&P 500 +0.36%. I’ll take it! Praise God for a day in the green.



S&P 500 closes higher Monday to kick off a busy earnings week: Live updates

The days action left us with the following signals: C-buy, S-Hold, I-Buy, F-Hold. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now -2.40% for the year not including todays results. Here are the latest posted gains:



04/14/23 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 17.4274 18.7807 63.7909 64.2217 37.7565
$ Change 0.0017 -0.0851 -0.1334 -0.4025 -0.1467
% Change day +0.01% -0.45% -0.21% -0.62% -0.39%
% Change week +0.08% -1.09% +0.81% +1.44% +1.96%
% Change month +0.14% +0.01% +0.75% -1.40% +2.40%
% Change year +1.12% +3.15% +8.30% +4.37% +11.24%
The Lifecycle (L) Funds
Fund L INC L 2025 L 2030 L 2035 L 2040
Price 23.5673 11.9048 41.3823 12.3322 46.3333
$ Change -0.0235 -0.0172 -0.0917 -0.0303 -0.1237
% Change day -0.10% -0.14% -0.22% -0.25% -0.27%
% Change week +0.31% +0.46% +0.74% +0.80% +0.87%
% Change month +0.36% +0.48% +0.68% +0.73% +0.78%
% Change year +3.14% +4.21% +5.90% +6.37% +6.82%
Fund L 2045 L 2050 L 2055 L 2060 L 2065
Price 12.6015 27.4408 13.3383 13.337 13.3355
$ Change -0.0361 -0.0832 -0.0439 -0.0440 -0.0440
% Change day -0.29% -0.30% -0.33% -0.33% -0.33%
% Change week +0.93% +0.99% +1.29% +1.29% +1.29%
% Change month +0.82% +0.86% +1.02% +1.02% +1.02%
% Change year +7.21% +7.59% +8.77% +8.77% +8.77%

Get TSP Fund Returns For Any Date or Between Any 2 Dates



 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger. If you want to learn more about technical analysis check out the website StockCharts.com.   
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
What can I say. The market is involved in some trading range action which will likely be the case until the Fed pauses their rate hiking campaign  or possibly even cuts rates. That’s probably what it will take to fuel a solid rally. For now we’ll  just have to slog it out and be happy with what we get. That’s all for this week. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
                                                                                            God bless, Scott Sunglasses
***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.







  • 09/26/2023

    Good Evening, Let’s get one thing out of the way. We do have a sell signal in all our equity based funds and that of course includes the C Fund. However, price is not the only thing that we watch. We have several indicators such as the Williams %R, the RSI, and the KDJ to…

  • 09/18/2023

    Good Evening, This week the market is marking time while it waits for the Fed meeting. We have  the Fed meeting on the heels of a slightly hot CPI report late last week. The media has been having a field day with that. The thing worth noting about the CPI is that while it was…

  • 09/12/2023

    Good Morning, The only consistency that this market has is inconsistency. They say that there’s nothing new under the sun and that is true when it comes to the inflation and interest rates, but I would argue that’s not the case with regard to computer algorithm trading. It is indeed new and the effect that…