04/02/2015

Good Evening,

The market managed a lethargic bounce today ending a two day slide. Volume was fairly low which tells me that a lot of traders cut out early for Good Friday. It closed fairly well and that may have been due to market players trying to position themselves before Friday’s jobs report. Even though the market will be closed, the report will still be issued so it will be Monday before traders can react. The report is supposed to come in at around 244,000 jobs created which will be down from what we had in February. That said, I won’t even try to guess what the market’s reaction to the news will be. Hopefully, the money that pushed the market higher today was smart money. In other words, for those of you new to the game, the buyers knew what they were doing and were buying for a reason. We will see on Monday! One disturbing trend during the past few weeks that continued into today was the under-performance of the Transportation sector. The Transportation sector is one that a lot of analysts watch as it usually leads the market higher during bull runs and lower during dips. It’s too early to say if that’s the case this time,but it is worth watching.

 

The day’s action left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment out performed at +0.706% and AMP got back on track at +0.442%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.37%, the Nasdaq +0.14%, the S&P +0.35%, AT&T +0.73%, Alaska Air -1.45%, Facebook -0.13% and Apple closed at +0.86%. I thank God for a good day!

Wall St. climbs after two-day decline; jobless data boosts

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 05/C, 32/S, 63/I. Our allotment is now +1.74% on the year, not including the day’s gains. Here are the latest posted results:
04/01/15
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.6852 17.1365 27.3231 38.1553 25.635
$ Change 0.0007 0.0523 -0.1053 -0.0963 0.0357
% Change day +0.00% +0.31% -0.38% -0.25% +0.14%
% Change week +0.03% +0.43% -0.03% +0.60% -0.95%
% Change month +0.00% +0.31% -0.38% -0.25% +0.14%
% Change year +0.47% +1.99% +0.58% +5.12% +5.85%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.6267 23.3151 25.3582 27.0433 15.3773
$ Change -0.0042 -0.0199 -0.0295 -0.0376 -0.0245
% Change day -0.02% -0.09% -0.12% -0.14% -0.16%
% Change week +0.01% -0.07% -0.08% -0.09% -0.12%
% Change month -0.02% -0.09% -0.12% -0.14% -0.16%
% Change year +1.01% +1.82% +2.23% +2.52% +2.80%
I’m going to whip out a new indicator on you today. It’s a golden oldie that I like to use so I finally decided to add it to my chart pack. It’s called the Vortex Indicator. Here is a short explanation of what it is and how it works:
Vortex Indicator
Developed by Etienne Botes and Douglas Siepman, the Vortex Indicator consists of two oscillators that capture positive and negative trend movement. In creating this indicator, Botes and Seipman drew on the work of Welles Wilder and Viktor Schauberger, who is considered the father of implosion technology. Despite a rather involved formula, the indicator is quite straightforward to understand and easy to interpret. A bullish signal triggers when the positive trend indicator crosses above the negative trend indicator or a key level. A bearish signal triggers when the negative trend indicator crosses above the positive trend indicator or a key level. The Vortex Indicator is either above or below these levels, which means it always has a clear bullish or bearish bias. Calculation of the Vortex Indicator (VTX) can be divided into three parts. First, calculate the positive and negative trend movements based on the highs and lows of the last two periods. Positive trend movement is the distance from the current high to the prior low. The further the current high is from the prior low, the more positive the trend movement. Negative trend movement is the distance from the current low to the prior high. The further the current low is from the prior high, the more negative the trend movement. These periodic values are then summed based on the indicator setting, which is the usually 14 periods. The second part involves the True Range, which was created by Welles Wilder. This indicator uses the current high, current low and prior close to measure volatility. See the formula box below for details. The third part normalizes the positive and negative trend movements by dividing them by the True Range. In effect, the Vortex Indicator shows volatility-adjusted positive trend movement and volatility-adjusted negative trend movement. The end result creates to indicators that oscillate above/below 1.
Got all that?? I thought so. Remember, I usually only give you the simple version of technical analysis. That’s the math free version if you will and believe me, statistics are not math free. The good thing is that you can know how to use these indicators without having to master all the mathematical formulas that make them work. So here’s a simpler explanation that will make it come alive for you… and I will add that the thing I love about this indicator it that it is so straight forward and easy to understand!
Here it is ATS (That’s According To Scott): When the green is above the red, that is bullish. When the red goes above the green, that is a bearish signal. This indicator is very clear. Either bullish or bearish, never both.
On to the charts!

C Fund: The C Fund gained on the day. However, Price was repelled at the 50 EMA which is now acting as resistance. The WMs %R turned up and the VTX is slightly bullish which may indicate more short term gains. I might add, since the VTX is new to you, that it is very adept at indicating a change in the trend. You need only to look back at the nice run in October and November to see what I’m talking about. As usual, all signals are annotated with fluorescent green circles.

1

The S Fund: The S Fund continues to stay in better overall condition than the C Fund. As I mentioned yesterday, the action in small caps is encouraging for the market as a whole. The Williams %R and the VTX are both short term bullish so more gains are likely on the way. Also encouraging is that price has remained above the 5 EMA.

2

The I Fund: The I Fund gained a whopping 0.87% today which is the reason that 63% of our money is allocated there. Price regained its 5 EMA, the PMO flattened out, the Williams %R turned up and the VTX is bullish. All of this bodes well for additional gains!

3

The F Fund:  Price slipped a little today, but that is to be expected on a good day for stocks. Over all this fund has been surprisingly strong. Price continues to remain well within the loosely configured ascending channel and the PMO, MAC D, Wms %R, and VTX are all bullish. I will add that this Fund is becoming a tad overbought.

4

The two-day losing streak ended today so we will look for some follow through on Monday. It all depends on tomorrow’s jobs report and how the market reacts to it. We’ll have to pay special attention to our charts on Monday. May God continue to guide our hand. Give Him all the praise for He and He alone is worthy!! That’s all for tonight. I’ll see you Monday. Enjoy your Easter weekend and take some time to reflect on the victory that our Lord and Savior Jesus attained when He arose on that wonderful morning so many years ago! He lives!!!
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

 

 




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