Good Evening,
Another day of gains. Could we be starting another V-Shaped bounce?
Stocks soar on Fed, earnings optimism
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation is now -1.90% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.3774 | 16.1292 | 24.0626 | 33.8281 | 25.7627 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | 0.0135 | 0.0980 | 0.2549 | -0.0016 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.08% | +0.41% | +0.76% | -0.01% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.27% | -0.67% | -0.94% | -0.26% |
| % Change month | +0.05% | +0.40% | -1.02% | -2.18% | +0.02% |
| % Change year | +0.63% | +2.46% | +0.78% | +0.47% | +0.78% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.9511 | 21.9857 | 23.6691 | 25.0588 | 14.1889 |
| $ Change | 0.0137 | 0.0401 | 0.0565 | 0.0707 | 0.0442 |
| % Change day | +0.08% | +0.18% | +0.24% | +0.28% | +0.31% |
| % Change week | -0.08% | -0.28% | -0.37% | -0.44% | -0.51% |
| % Change month | -0.12% | -0.41% | -0.57% | -0.70% | -0.80% |
| % Change year | +0.80% | +0.87% | +0.90% | +0.90% | +0.89% |
The S Fund led the charge back up today as it usually does at +1.35% with the I Fund close on it’s heels at +1.28%. Here’s what the C Fund did today.
C Fund: The C Fund had a nice bounce that looks good at first glance, but the truth of the matter is that it continues to trade in the same range that it has traded in since the last week in February. I don’t expect that to change until the market has a real correction of 10% or more. A break above the 1890 mark would surely fuel some additional gains but the upside would be limited. A break below the 1850 level could signal a drop to the 1750 range which would be the next probable level of resistance should such a break occur. Technically speaking the chart is still in an up trend with the 20 EMA over the 50 EMA which is over the 200 EMA. However, it is still solidly in the neutral range with the PMO holding below its 20 EMA. The head and shoulders pattern that I mentioned yesterday is still a possibility. We will continue to watch for the formation of the right shoulder. This is considered a bearish pattern. Should it form and execute it could signal the real correction that we have been looking for. For now tough, we’ll just enjoy the ride back up to the top of the current trading range (about 1890). Volume today was again average.
It would be neglectful of me not to mention seasonality. April is a strong month as you can see from the chart below. However, the coming month of May starts a more negative season that leads the the old saying “Go away in May and remember in November”. That might work on occasion, but it is not something to hang your hat on. There have been more than a few times that I have made some good money in the months between May and November.
I only mentioned the seasonality thing as I feel that the negative seasonality could add to the drag on an already extended market. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening.
God bless,
Scott
