04/10/17

Good Evening, The daily reversals have reversed! Instead of starting off weak and turning up in the afternoon the market is now in a pattern of starting off strong and weakening in the afternoon. This action is great for day traders, but not so great for us. This is a season we must go though and go through it we will….. Of course the media has it’s usual excuses for the action, some or most of which I consider noise. However the end result of all this is that the market has basically gone nowhere in the past 6 weeks. Speaking of noise, Greg Morris wrote an excellent short blog on reducing the noise on charts. This blog will greatly help those of you who are trying to understand the charts. It covers moving averages which are probably the most important indicator to look at when reading a chart. Here’s the blog.

 

Filtering the Noise

 

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment fell back -0.11%. For comparison, the Dow ended up at +0.01%, the Nasdaq +0.05%, and the S&P at 0.07%.

 

Wall Street Deflates in Final Minutes After Choppy Start to Week

 

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/I. Our allotment is now +1.94% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

04/07/17 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.2831 17.64 32.6677 42.4456 26.2396
$ Change 0.0010 -0.0283 -0.0268 -0.0163 -0.0028
% Change day +0.01% -0.16% -0.08% -0.04% -0.01%
% Change week +0.05% +0.17% -0.24% -0.99% -0.65%
% Change month +0.05% +0.17% -0.24% -0.99% -0.65%
% Change year +0.63% +1.10% +5.81% +3.54% +6.66%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 18.7188 25.1507 27.8665 29.9257 17.1194
$ Change -0.0029 -0.0070 -0.0116 -0.0142 -0.0087
% Change day -0.02% -0.03% -0.04% -0.05% -0.05%
% Change week -0.05% -0.16% -0.28% -0.34% -0.40%
% Change month -0.05% -0.16% -0.28% -0.34% -0.40%
% Change year +1.68% +2.75% +3.84% +4.38% +4.86%

 

Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:  Moving sideways.
S Fund: The S fund generated a weak buy signal when the MACD moved into a positive configuration. Given the sideways nature of the indicators I would expect the signal to whipsaw. I would want to see some conformation of this signal before I would became too excited about it.
I Fund:  Price has moved down to the bottom trend line. The uptrend is under pressure. On the bright side the Williams %R has moved into a negative configuration. As you can see be looking back on the chart. It signaled a new uptrend the past two times it did so. The Williams %R is an overbought/ oversold indicator. The higher the number the more overbought, the lower the number the more oversold.
F Fund: Moving up the ascending channel. But the SCTR still has not heartbeat.
Our allotment continues to underperform but I believe we’ll have our day and the Williams %R may well be predicting it…. We’ll see. Keep praying! That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and I’ll see you tomorrow.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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