04/20/18

Good Evening, The market dropped today as investors worried about two areas #1 Taiwan Semiconductor (TSC) warned that demand of smart phone chips has decreased sending the tech sector down.  And #2 Bonds continued to weaken sending yields higher. This concerns investors in two ways. First when yields are high, investors favor bonds over equities including sectors such as consumer staples and real estate, which promise high dividends and slow, predictable growth. Second. when yields increase interest rates increase and higher interest rates are not market friendly with the exception of the financial sector. Banks make more money when interest rates are high…. While the major indices took a dip the last two days they did manage to post a small gain for the week making it their second consecutive week with a gain.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment fell back  -0.57%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.82%, the Nasdaq -1.27%, and the S&P 500 -0.85%.

 

Wall Street falls on investor nerves about interest rates, tech

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +1.68% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.

 

04/19/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.6649 17.739 38.0929 49.6932 31.3788
$ Change 0.0012 -0.0476 -0.2147 -0.2776 -0.0037
% Change day +0.01% -0.27% -0.56% -0.56% -0.01%
% Change week +0.05% -0.42% +1.40% +1.75% +1.17%
% Change month +0.14% -0.63% +2.07% +2.42% +2.81%
% Change year +0.80% -2.08% +1.28% +2.53% +1.70%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.7185 27.1441 31.1065 33.9093 19.6637
$ Change -0.0176 -0.0394 -0.0799 -0.1028 -0.0672
% Change day -0.09% -0.14% -0.26% -0.30% -0.34%
% Change week +0.29% +0.46% +0.83% +0.98% +1.12%
% Change month +0.54% +0.80% +1.43% +1.68% +1.91%
% Change year +0.86% +0.94% +1.20% +1.29% +1.38%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund: The F Fund generated an overall sell signal when price, the PMO, the MACD, and the Wms%R all moved into negative configurations with the SCTR below 40.
Normally I feel good when bonds were moving lower as a lot of that money normally ends up in equities. However, given the current climate I don'[t have that some fuzzy feeling. Right now, the charts are still good, but it won’t be long until negative seasonality is upon us and you’ll here them saying sell in May and go away. That phrase has lost more money that has made. If you must follow a rhyme then follow this one “Follow your chart and not your heart”. There are more good earnings coming next week. Hopefully they can move this market along. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice weekend and I’ll see you on Monday!
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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