Good Evening.
And the V-Shaped bounce on low volume continues… Or another way of saying it is here we go…again….
Stocks: Another Tuesday surge
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 08/G, 92/F. Our allocation is now -4.19% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 04/21/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.3897 | 16.1269 | 24.329 | 33.9438 | 25.7677 |
| $ Change | 0.0038 | -0.0009 | 0.0919 | 0.1514 | -0.0256 |
| % Change day | +0.03% | -0.01% | +0.38% | +0.45% | -0.10% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | -0.01% | +0.38% | +0.45% | -0.10% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | +0.38% | +0.07% | -1.84% | +0.04% |
| % Change year | +0.72% | +2.45% | +1.90% | +0.81% | +0.80% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.9874 | 22.0714 | 23.7791 | 25.1874 | 14.2678 |
| $ Change | 0.0124 | 0.0308 | 0.0415 | 0.0508 | 0.0313 |
| % Change day | +0.22% | +0.07% | +0.14% | +0.17% | +0.20% |
| % Change week | +0.22% | +0.07% | +0.14% | +0.17% | +0.20% |
| % Change month | -0.25% | +0.09% | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.19% |
| % Change year | +1.45% | +1.02% | +1.26% | +1.36% | +1.42% |
There’s not really much I can say. We are in the midst of another low volume V Shaped bounce that has saved the trapped bulls and put the squeeze on me for the second time this year (In Thrift, not on the street where we are out performing the market due to alternative investments). You’d think I’d learn right? Well let me tell you. I’m disappointed that our allocation is under performing, but I am not sorry that my priority was and is capital preservation. After making over 36% last year ( the auto tracker only says 21.3 but we did not enter that system until 03/11/13 so the 15% that we gained in January and February of that year were not shown) we can afford to be conservative in a market that is extended to say the least. As I have said many times, it only takes one correction of 40 – 50% to destroy your earnings for several years. That of course would include the time it takes to make the money back that was lost! So when taking into consideration that the market landscape is constantly changing with the FED’s quantitative easing program winding down and an improving (albeit sluggishly) economy, then throw in a wild card or two like the Ukrainian situation and you have to ask yourself, can I count on another V-Shaped bounce to bail me out as I blindly buy and hold? Obviously, not the last two times the market has dipped as I am all too painfully aware. All that said, I just don’t trust this market to endlessly rise. I just don’t believe in throwing caution to the wind. With God’s help I’ll adjust to whatever it throws at me, but I will not risk hard earned capital in an extended market. Yes I bet against it, and I’ll probably bet against it again. My indicators are telling me that this thing is coming to an end. I just can’t say when. It has yet to be determined if we will end up on the negative side of the ledger for only the second time ever when this year comes to an end, but I can promise you that most or all of what we worked so hard to make over the past 17 years will still be in tact when that time comes. It’s kind of like one of those signs on the beach. Swim at your own risk. Well, I chose not to risk my life just to take a dip! Just a quick note on the charts, the S&P 500 is making another run at 1890. I feel strongly that it will be turned back. Should I get a buy signal for that chart, I will consider rebalancing, but I will take that resistance at 1890 strongly into account when I do. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening!
God bless,
Scott
