04/24/14

Good Evening,

Yes sir, the S&P 500 was turned back from upper resistance in the 1890 range again, just like we predicted. Today, money started flowing back into defensive areas such as precious metals. Is it over? Will we try resistance again? I think so. As I noted yesterday (using the $SPX as I always do), the S&P 500 continues to trade in the range between 1860 and 1890. We are currently bouncing off upper resistance after recovering from a mild breach of lower resistance at the 1860 level in early  April. Starting in May, we no longer have the wind of positive seasonality at our back and that will make a big difference. At this time I favor a resolution of this formation sometime in May with a correction of 10% or greater. That analysis makes me in no hurry to buy back into equities here or on the street….

 

Stocks: Tug of war on Wall Street

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 08/G, 92/F. Our allocation is now -3.96% not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results: 

04/23/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.3916 16.1682 24.3784 34.1199 25.9714
$ Change 0.0010 0.0360 -0.0506 -0.1856 -0.0004
% Change day +0.01% +0.22% -0.21% -0.54% +0.00%
% Change week +0.04% +0.25% +0.58% +0.97% +0.69%
% Change month +0.15% +0.64% +0.28% -1.33% +0.83%
% Change year +0.73% +2.71% +2.11% +1.33% +1.59%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.0052 22.1247 23.8515 25.2749 14.3237
$ Change -0.0039 -0.0201 -0.0302 -0.0396 -0.0259
% Change day -0.18% -0.02% -0.09% -0.13% -0.16%
% Change week +0.61% +0.18% +0.38% +0.48% +0.55%
% Change month +0.14% +0.20% +0.22% +0.19% +0.15%
% Change year +1.85% +1.12% +1.51% +1.67% +1.78%
Our allocation made up a little ground today. The purpose of being where we are is not to make money though, but rather to preserve it. There will be better chances to make money when the market isn’t bouncing off of overhead resistance. I probably won’t re-balance unless I’m forced to do so, as I would prefer to wait and see what happens in May. I have a sneaking suspicion that the old adage sell in May and go away may work in 2014. Either way, I’ll read my charts and trust my God. Then I will make the necessary adjustments. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades!
Have a nice evening.
Scott8-)

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • *****Interfund Transfer*****

    Good Evening, It’s time to adjust our mix. The new mix is 100/G Please remember that this is the percentage of money that we have invested in each fund, not the money that is taken from your check and deposited into thrift. Those future contributions should always be 100% G Fund. That automatically protects your…

  • June 11, 2025

    Good afternoon and welcome to this guest update. For those who don’t know me, I’m Jacqueline Smith, Scott’s daughter. I’ve learned a great deal about his technical approach over the years and he’s asked me to share our current analysis while he is on a well-deserved retreat to some of our beautiful National Park Service…

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