Good Evening, 10 year treasury yields poked their head above the 3 percent mark today and the market reacted in the same manner that it did when bond yields rose significantly in February. It responded with a large sell off. Many stocks where dumped regardless of how good the companies are. I’ll say the same thing that I said yesterday. We made plenty of money in the market when yields were in this range before. So what gives now? The market is much more overbought than it was in 2014 and stocks are not performing as well as they were then. This was no more than a good old sell the news reaction. Investors were saying to themselves that we’ve had a nice run so maybe it’s time to take a little money off the table now and that’s exactly what they did. The question now is will we get a bounce? There are several high profile earnings reports such as Facebook in the coming days. Many of them should be good. Today’s selling had the feel of capitulation. That coupled with some good earnings could give us a bounce. I’m inclined to buy this dip but I must be honest and say that my caution level has been raised a few notches. This is a tough market. It’s not going to bail investors out of poor trades the way it has for the past 8 years.
The days selling left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gave up -0.81%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -1.74%, the Nasdaq -1.70%, and the S&P 500 -1.34%. There was blood in the streets today!
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +0.98% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 04/23/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.6696 | 17.6863 | 37.7717 | 49.3498 | 31.0943 |
| $ Change | 0.0035 | -0.0171 | 0.0021 | -0.0550 | -0.0845 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | -0.10% | +0.01% | -0.11% | -0.27% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.10% | +0.01% | -0.11% | -0.27% |
| % Change month | +0.17% | -0.93% | +1.21% | +1.71% | +1.88% |
| % Change year | +0.83% | -2.37% | +0.43% | +1.82% | +0.77% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.6863 | 27.0676 | 30.9448 | 33.6994 | 19.5256 |
| $ Change | -0.0015 | -0.0065 | -0.0177 | -0.0242 | -0.0164 |
| % Change day | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.08% |
| % Change week | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.08% |
| % Change month | +0.37% | +0.52% | +0.90% | +1.05% | +1.20% |
| % Change year | +0.69% | +0.66% | +0.68% | +0.66% | +0.67% |
