04/24/18

Good Evening, 10 year treasury yields poked their head above the 3 percent mark today and the market reacted in the same manner that it did when bond yields rose significantly in February. It responded with a large sell off.  Many stocks where dumped regardless of how good the companies are.  I’ll say the same thing that I said yesterday. We made plenty of money in the market when yields were in this range before. So what gives now? The market is much more overbought than it was in 2014 and stocks are not performing as well as they were then. This was no more than a good old sell the news reaction. Investors were saying to themselves that we’ve had a nice run so maybe it’s time to take a little money off the table now and that’s exactly what they did. The question now is will we get a bounce? There are several high profile earnings reports such as Facebook in the coming days. Many of them should be good. Today’s selling had the feel of capitulation. That coupled with some good earnings could give us a bounce. I’m inclined to buy this dip but I must be honest and say that my caution level has been raised a few notches. This is a tough market. It’s not going to bail investors out of poor trades the way it has for the past 8 years.

The days selling left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gave up -0.81%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -1.74%, the Nasdaq -1.70%, and the S&P 500 -1.34%. There was blood in the streets today!

 

Wall Street slides as high bond yields fan cost worries

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +0.98% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

04/23/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.6696 17.6863 37.7717 49.3498 31.0943
$ Change 0.0035 -0.0171 0.0021 -0.0550 -0.0845
% Change day +0.02% -0.10% +0.01% -0.11% -0.27%
% Change week +0.02% -0.10% +0.01% -0.11% -0.27%
% Change month +0.17% -0.93% +1.21% +1.71% +1.88%
% Change year +0.83% -2.37% +0.43% +1.82% +0.77%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.6863 27.0676 30.9448 33.6994 19.5256
$ Change -0.0015 -0.0065 -0.0177 -0.0242 -0.0164
% Change day -0.01% -0.02% -0.06% -0.07% -0.08%
% Change week -0.01% -0.02% -0.06% -0.07% -0.08%
% Change month +0.37% +0.52% +0.90% +1.05% +1.20%
% Change year +0.69% +0.66% +0.68% +0.66% +0.67%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
It’s a good thing that I don’t have to rely on my prognostication ability. If I did I’d have gone broke a long time ago. I honestly have no idea where this market is going. Anyone that says they do is being either a little less than truthful or foolish. At this point I’m going to continue to trust in God and watch my charts. The same things I have always done. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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