Good Evening, I’m pretty sure the sky is falling…..Seriously folks, we talked about this. I believe in last weeks blog. Go check it our because it still applies in triplicate this week! Today the market tanked in the afternoon session after investors (or should I call them day traders) panicked after Dr. Anthony Fauci testified before congress that there could be outbreaks that might not be controllable if restrictions are eased too rapidly. Really? Is there anybody reading this blog that doesn’t realize that??? If you don’t then you probably didn’t read the aforementioned blog in which case I again refer you to it. There are a couple things I’d like to point out here. The first one I bring up every time my E mail box fills up on days like this. PANIC IS NOT A STRATEGY! This is what you signed up for. This recovery is going to have a lot of days like this. I count it a blessing that we are still in the green as I write this blog. If anyone wants to lock this small profit in and call it a year this is your chance. You really only have two choices and I don’t consider the F Fund one of them. You can either pull your money out and draw the G penny or you can invest in this recovery. We aren’t necessarily invested for what we are going to get now. We know that the market is going to swing with every headline. We know that the prices could drop below what we have invested. I have to pause here and point something out. The greatest investor of our time Warren Buffet refuses to even acknowledge the quarterly reports that his firm Berkshire Hathaway has to make to the SEC on current value that is to say paper value of their portfolio. He’s says it’s not important to him! So if the oracle of Omaha isn’t worried about an entire bear market, then why are you worried about a single days price fluctuation? I’m betting you that if your reading this blog you either A) sold when we did in which case your currently in the green or B) you held through the entire selloff. If you indeed held then why worry now? If you got out with us then you have the choice I mentioned above. If you just bought back in I can’t help you. Seriously though. This recovery is going to go on for a while. Maybe even multiple years. So you need to be ready for that. Like I said in last weeks blog. I’m betting on the USA! I believe we can and will overcome this virus. What I do not believe is that we will overcome it in six months. It’s going to take a lot longer than that. Also as I noted in the previous several bogs. It’s all about positioning. What do you think is going to happen when the first jobs report is issued and we actually pick up some jobs or the cases of COVID 19 actually decline in several states??? Yeah me too. I want to be in this market. Is there anyone you doesn’t believe we will recover? If that is the case then you’ve already answered your own question. Sell and move everything you’ve got to the G Fund. As for me. I already shorted this market. Then I bought back in at a good price and I intend to hold through the recovery if at all possible. No Sir, I’m not a buy and holder like Warren Buffet. I mentioned him because as a long term investor he believes we are going to be just fine and I do too. Do you think he would hold if he really believed things were going to heck in a hand basket? Absolutely not!!! That’s the reason he just sold all his airline stocks!!! He didn’t hold them. However, he did keep the majority of his portfolio in tact. As the old saying goes. He put his money where his mouth is and I did too. God bless America!!!!
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment closed down -2.05%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -1.89%, the Nasdaq -2.06%, and the S&P 500 -2.05%. For all you who are in the S Fund, it fell -3.19%.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +4.71% on the year. Here are the latest posted results:
|Fund||G Fund||F Fund||C Fund||S Fund||I Fund|
|% Change day||+0.00%||+0.26%||-2.04%||-3.00%||-0.65%|
|% Change week||+0.01%||-0.06%||-2.03%||-3.27%||-0.96%|
|% Change month||+0.02%||-0.50%||-1.37%||-0.52%||-1.30%|
|% Change year||+0.50%||+4.41%||-10.59%||-17.21%||-18.81%|
|L INC||L 2020||L 2030||L 2040||L 2050|
|% Change day||-0.35%||-0.37%||-1.00%||-1.20%||-1.37%|
|% Change week||-0.39%||-0.42%||-1.10%||-1.32%||-1.52%|
|% Change month||-0.26%||-0.28%||-0.73%||-0.88%||-1.00%|
|% Change year||-2.41%||-3.03%||-8.21%||-9.97%||-11.52%|