05/16/19

Good Evening, More good economic and earnings reports spurred the market higher for a third consecutive day today. Specifically Walmart and Cisco Systems blew earnings out. The Walmart report was especially important as it is considered a bellwether stock for US retailers. The economic side of things was loaded and it was all good pointing toward a strong economy. First, the unemployment report was excellent with 16,000 fewer Americans filing for unemployment. Second, April housing reports surprised to the upside spurred by lower interest rates. And third, first quarter earnings were revised upward. You remember that two percent drop that was forecast? That has turned into an increase!  Analysts now expect first-quarter earnings growth of 1.4%, a significant improvement over the 2% loss expected on April 1. Now I ask you this question. Does this sound like a weak economy to you?  Not to me either. It sure doesn’t seem like the trade war is hurting us much if at all. At least not yet. It makes me wonder if Mondays selling wasn’t a just a little overdone……Shall we sit back and watch a while longer or get back in? I’m in no hurry but lets take a look at the charts and decide.

The days trading left us with the following results. Our TSP allotment slipped back -0.12%. For comparison, the Dow was up +0.84%, the Nasdaq +0.97%, and the S&P 500 +0.89%.

 

Wall St. rises for third straight day on data, earnings

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/F but are looking to get back into equities when we see a buy signal in one of our three equity based funds. More than likely the C or the S or both. Our allocation is now +10.30% on the year. Here are the latest posted results:

 

 

05/16/19 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 16.1502 18.779 41.5758 51.86 29.5749
$ Change 0.0011 -0.0214 0.3783 0.4308 0.1557
% Change day +0.01% -0.11% +0.92% +0.84% +0.53%
% Change week +0.04% +0.28% -0.11% -0.55% +0.36%
% Change month +0.11% +0.52% -2.20% -1.95% -2.29%
% Change year +0.99% +3.51% +15.64% +17.92% +10.71%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 20.4273 28.1115 32.3012 35.2105 20.4076
$ Change 0.0324 0.0603 0.1475 0.1912 0.1261
% Change day +0.16% +0.21% +0.46% +0.55% +0.62%
% Change week +0.05% +0.05% +0.03% +0.02% +0.01%
% Change month -0.34% -0.51% -1.24% -1.51% -1.74%
% Change year +3.75% +4.92% +8.99% +10.58% +11.95%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
I am extremely tempted to re enter the equity market However, I realize that we still do not have a buy signal in the C,S, or I Funds. While the VIX has now moved lower to a respectable 15.29 we must be disciplined and wait for a buy signal in one of our equity based funds. I intend to look at things closely in the morning. We still have until noon eastern time tomorrow to decide if we want to buy back into equities before Monday and as you already know a lot can change in a day. I would at least feel a little better if our equity based charts would regain their 20 EMA’s (Exponential Moving Average) and the VIX (Volatility Index) remained below 16. While I do not trade specifically off the VIX (I prefer to look at the individual chart of the funds I am trading) I do find it to be an excellent tool to evaluate the level of risk presented at a given time. That’s all for tonight! May God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott Sunglasses
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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