Good Morning, I’d like to say that everything is changed and we are now moving on to a new phase of this market, but we are not. This market continues to be controlled by tariff negotiations, inflation and the Fed as it has been for several months now. It is more important than ever to watch your charts and keep your eye on the long term trend because the short term and in some cases the intermediate term trends are all over the place. We ended last week on a down note as president Trump announced that he would put additional tariffs of up to 50% on the European Union because negotiations “were going nowhere”. Now there are two ways you can approach this thing. You can have a trust that the president knows what he is doing and that everything is a negotiating tactic or you can choose to believe that he is leading us to ruination. Unsurprisingly, I have found that these views are split along party lines. However, investing must transcend party lines. It’s not republican and it’s not democrat. It either is or it isn’t plain and simple. In this particular case you must look at the president as the CEO of a major corporation which of course is the United States. If that is the case then you must believe that he is trying to advance the bottom line of his corporation. That’s the way he thinks and that is the way you must think. Granted, he could be an unsuccessful CEO who will ultimately be fired by his board of directors and share holders who are of course “we the people”. That is certainly not he case though and I am not inferring that it is. I pray daily that God will bless the United States. Not the Democrats or the Republicans. The United States of America!!! I will add this tid bit for free. Capitalism and socialism don’t mix and what I have said  above does not apply to socialism or the politicians who advocate it regardless of their party affiliations. Socialism is a failed system and will fail here as well if we are ever naive enough to allow it to take root. Enough of that, I’ll have the haters three deep in my feed and I will add that I simply don’t care. I am a proud American and Capitalist and above all a follower of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ and I will never apologize for any of that. So lets get back off the rabbit trail…. When approaching this market from investors prospective you must trust that the president is attempting to do what is best for our company. If y0u do that and watch the longer term indicators on your charts, you will come out this thing well. If not, you may lose money or at the the very least not make any money which are both unacceptable if you are trying to grow a portfolio. As I have always told you. Keep politics and emotions out of your investment decisions. Take what the market gives you regardless of who is in Washington D.C.. Which brings me to the current week. As I already said this market is about tariff negotiations, inflation and the Fed. Friday the major indices all finished in the red. Those looking at the glass half empty probably sold or at least thought about it. After the past few months why not get out of this with a profit, right? All I can say is more power to you if you did. This  past week the president had initially called for a 50% tariff on EU goods to begin on June 1. He accused the bloc in a social media post of being “very difficult to deal with,” and said trade negotiations with the EU were “going nowhere.” European stocks rebounded Monday morning, moving into positive territory, after previously sinking on Friday in response to Trump’s fresh tariffs threats.  EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. said in a post on X over the weekend that the EU was “ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively.”  “The EU and US share the world’s most consequential and close trade relationship,” she said. “To reach a good deal, we would need the time until July 9.” Blah Blah Blah, you the picture. I’ll bet you that if you put a transfer order in on Friday to get out of stocks that you’ll be sorry by Tuesday or Wednesday. We will see. I reserve he right to be wrong…..pun intended. If you watched your charts and considered or dare I use the word trusted that president Trump was negotiating in good faith then you should be in good shape. Bottom line, keep your emotions out of it and sell only when your charts tell you to sell. That time will come but it was not this past Friday.

Fridays trading left us with the following results. Our TSP allotment was slightly in the Red at -0.37%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.59%, the Nasdaq -1.00%, and the S&P 500 -0.68%. Let me also note here that the I fund outperformed this past week due to a a  drop in the value of the dollar. However, We do not think the slide in the dollar will continue. So we’re staying put in the S Fund.

The most recent market action has left us with the following signals: C-Hold, S-Hold, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +2.75% on the year. Here are the latest posted results:

More Prices & Returns

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.