05/28/19

Good Evening. It’s the same old song and dance again this week. The market started off with some decent gains but gave them up in the afternoon as investors focused once again on trade concerns. Don’t let anybody fool you, it’s all about the trade war. All roads lead there including and especially concerns about global growth. I know there are a lot of analysts out there that are bullish but I am not one of them. My charts paint a pessimistic picture. Based on what I am seeing I believe that the market will continue to drift lower until there is a trade deal with China and that doesn’t appear to be coming as soon as we thought it might. I feel that if you remain in equities you will be exposed to a lot of volatility in both directions and when the smoke clears you will most likely find yourself a little lower than when you started. I know that the drop in treasury yields defies imagination. We keep asking ourselves how can they go lower? Why are they going lower? Those questions are easily answered and the answers should be setting off warning bells in your mind. Treasury yields are moving lower because investors are buying bonds. They are seeking the safety of bonds. That is driving the price of bonds higher and treasury yields lower. For those of you new to the game. Treasury yields and bond prices move in opposite directions. When they are behaving as they are right now it usually means that equity prices are going lower. The old adage when bonds are up stocks are down really applies here! The bottom line is that a lot of indicators that I follow are making me nervous about this market. Of course that can always change, but for now I’m staying in bonds.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a gain of +0.15%. For comparison, the Dow lost -0.93%, the Nasdaq -0.39%, and the S&P 500 -0.84%. Praise God, the bonds worked well for us today. It’s not what you make! It’s what you keep that’s important!

 

Wall St. loses early gains as trade concerns abound

 

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/F. Our allocation is now +10.66% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
05/24/19 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 16.1591 18.8391 40.8663 50.5245 29.3959
$ Change 0.0011 -0.0316 0.0618 0.3028 0.2212
% Change day +0.01% -0.17% +0.15% +0.60% +0.76%
% Change week +0.05% +0.27% -1.14% -1.42% -0.49%
% Change month +0.16% +0.84% -3.87% -4.48% -2.89%
% Change year +1.04% +3.84% +13.67% +14.89% +10.04%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 20.3785 28.0135 32.033 34.8556 20.1698
$ Change 0.0167 0.0313 0.0788 0.1034 0.0691
% Change day +0.08% +0.11% +0.25% +0.30% +0.34%
% Change week -0.15% -0.22% -0.54% -0.65% -0.76%
% Change month -0.58% -0.86% -2.06% -2.50% -2.88%
% Change year +3.50% +4.55% +8.08% +9.46% +10.64%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
Don’t be deceived if and when the market heads up strong for a day. A day does not a market make! No, you need to be patient and keep an eye on your charts. You also need to be watching your indicators outside of your TSP charts such as the VIX. When the VIX is high and I define that as over 16, then you can bet the market will have a negative bias. For now I just have to thank God again for guiding us to the F Fund…. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and I’ll see you tomorrow!
God bless, Scott Sunglasses
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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