Good Evening. It’s the same old song and dance again this week. The market started off with some decent gains but gave them up in the afternoon as investors focused once again on trade concerns. Don’t let anybody fool you, it’s all about the trade war. All roads lead there including and especially concerns about global growth. I know there are a lot of analysts out there that are bullish but I am not one of them. My charts paint a pessimistic picture. Based on what I am seeing I believe that the market will continue to drift lower until there is a trade deal with China and that doesn’t appear to be coming as soon as we thought it might. I feel that if you remain in equities you will be exposed to a lot of volatility in both directions and when the smoke clears you will most likely find yourself a little lower than when you started. I know that the drop in treasury yields defies imagination. We keep asking ourselves how can they go lower? Why are they going lower? Those questions are easily answered and the answers should be setting off warning bells in your mind. Treasury yields are moving lower because investors are buying bonds. They are seeking the safety of bonds. That is driving the price of bonds higher and treasury yields lower. For those of you new to the game. Treasury yields and bond prices move in opposite directions. When they are behaving as they are right now it usually means that equity prices are going lower. The old adage when bonds are up stocks are down really applies here! The bottom line is that a lot of indicators that I follow are making me nervous about this market. Of course that can always change, but for now I’m staying in bonds.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a gain of +0.15%. For comparison, the Dow lost -0.93%, the Nasdaq -0.39%, and the S&P 500 -0.84%. Praise God, the bonds worked well for us today. It’s not what you make! It’s what you keep that’s important!
| 05/24/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.1591 | 18.8391 | 40.8663 | 50.5245 | 29.3959 |
| $ Change | 0.0011 | -0.0316 | 0.0618 | 0.3028 | 0.2212 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.17% | +0.15% | +0.60% | +0.76% |
| % Change week | +0.05% | +0.27% | -1.14% | -1.42% | -0.49% |
| % Change month | +0.16% | +0.84% | -3.87% | -4.48% | -2.89% |
| % Change year | +1.04% | +3.84% | +13.67% | +14.89% | +10.04% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.3785 | 28.0135 | 32.033 | 34.8556 | 20.1698 |
| $ Change | 0.0167 | 0.0313 | 0.0788 | 0.1034 | 0.0691 |
| % Change day | +0.08% | +0.11% | +0.25% | +0.30% | +0.34% |
| % Change week | -0.15% | -0.22% | -0.54% | -0.65% | -0.76% |
| % Change month | -0.58% | -0.86% | -2.06% | -2.50% | -2.88% |
| % Change year | +3.50% | +4.55% | +8.08% | +9.46% | +10.64% |
